Movies · resolved market
Will 'The Monkey' gross more than 15m on its opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa25544b43fdc8fa2987f81eaec7db4252360ff3f0445142af064fa52fcaf5a6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 49c | 12,101$5,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,111.51 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 52c | 9,998$5,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,238.94 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 51c | 8,619$4,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,436 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed No | 67c | 7,554$5,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,472.79 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 66c | 5,770$3,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,934.54 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 36c | 5,053$1,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,818.64 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 43c | 4,035$1,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,723.62 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,815$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe664…bfb3backed Yes | 14c | 3,500$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.73 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 12c | 3,397$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.51 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 24c | 3,278$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.11 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed Yes | 4c | 2,881$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 28c | 2,549$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.19 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x792d…c475backed Yes | 4c | 2,540$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef05…3dffbacked No | 59c | 2,342$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.25 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes | 5c | 2,219$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.7 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 46c | 2,185$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.92 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 66c | 2,181$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.99 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 80c | 2,150$1,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.73 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked No | 38c | 2,092$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,287.38 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…9f3cbacked Yes | 54c | 1,846$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.62 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 21c | 1,800$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,187$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.87 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f4…5ffcbacked No | 76c | 1,182$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.65 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed No | 66c | 1,140$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.75 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 23c | 1,001$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.19 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c4…b8dcbacked Yes | 1c | 859.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -81%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 47c | 767.39$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.76 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 14c | 666$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ca…eab7backed Yes | 73c | 609.12$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.7 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 5c | 603.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 49c | 600$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 46c | 550$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6308…36a9backed Yes | 50c | 517.36$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 67c | 479.2$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.99 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…e44bbacked No | 47c | 422.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.57 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 404.24$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.44 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed Yes | 6c | 370.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked No | 53c | 362.06$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.98 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 33c | 339.92$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.22 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa93c…17b2backed Yes | 43c | 319.45$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.36 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 62c | 311.28$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.28 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 35c | 293.07$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.81 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 22c | 278.48$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.78 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 26c | 269.58$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.41 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…3a31backed Yes | 16c | 262$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…9b0dbacked Yes | 5c | 241.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 46c | 214.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 52c | 210$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed Yes | 12c | 201.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3326…8415backed Yes | 21c | 198.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked No | 35c | 147$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.27 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 69c | 145.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…b07ebacked Yes | 54c | 132.05$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 38c | 130$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 39c | 111$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf38b…df47backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4548…025bbacked Yes | 52c | 96.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 19c | 91.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6661…277dbacked No | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf801…e94fbacked Yes | 41c | 78.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 68c | 73.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…3748backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…b0afbacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc89…b473backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 77c | 48.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 35c | 45.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -48%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9855…ac9bbacked Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 42.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 39.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 56c | 30.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 35c | 29.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'The Monkey' gross more than 15m on its opening weekend?this page
- Will 'The Monkey' gross between 12-15m on its opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'The Monkey' gross between 9-12m on its opening weekend?No won
- Will 'The Monkey' gross less than 9m on its opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.