Movies · resolved market
Will "Conclave" win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2025 SAG Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29483270f83df4b0f12247e926fbb3b275c514f46e579c2cc3786a6071929884
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 13c | 6,947$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,058.03 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 2c | 4,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 3cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 3c | 2,666$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 3c | 2,666$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 8c | 1,858$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,701.67 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 11c | 1,728$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,537.87 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 8c | 1,303$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.51 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 14c | 1,043$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.9 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 14c | 958.33$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.95 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 11c | 810$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.8 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 12c | 700.45$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.51 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 9c | 600$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 10c | 500.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.89 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 24c | 390.46$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.35 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 8c | 350.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.3 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 253.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.06 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…22eebacked Yes | 13c | 192.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 9c | 185$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.26 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.67 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4acf…9d04backed Yes | 9c | 153$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…7b5cbacked Yes | 15c | 125.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.89 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.4 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 14c | 119$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.33 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 67c | 81.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…de48backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +89%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8f…b7fdbacked Yes | 43c | 46.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Conclave" win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2025 SAG Awards?this page
- Will "A Complete Unknown" win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2025 SAG Awards?No won
- Will "Anora" win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2025 SAG Awards?No won
- Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2025 SAG Awards?No won
- Will "Wicked" win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2025 SAG Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.