TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Anora" win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2025 SAG Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,001
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,480

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,001 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes43c24,604$10,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,493.394930.6%15 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid+21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No62c5,159$3,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,935.228836.4%32 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes41c4,088$1,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,657.648330.1%25 W · 58 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-30%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No50c1,941$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.563953.8%21 W · 18 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+46.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes44c1,704$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7504544.4%20 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes41c1,401$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.4917821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No55c1,221$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.6423751.9%123 W · 114 L+16.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4d6…fdd3backed No61c1,209$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.523842.1%16 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes41c1,125$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.461799.5%17 W · 162 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes33c999.99$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3301827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed No59c974$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.856937.7%26 W · 43 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1d5…5684backed No61c846$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.321662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+37%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x863f…8775backed Yes54c781.1$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No53c770.09$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.629926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No61c755$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.736434.4%22 W · 42 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No57c750$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.9634651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No63c739$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.7810244.1%45 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No56c631.9$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.369231.5%29 W · 63 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes33c630.7$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.921741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes38c599.97$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.9947328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes39c521.01$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.6967232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1734…ddd4backed Yes46c433.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-59.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed No54c363$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.092934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-33.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes37c321.27$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.8719031.1%59 W · 131 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No60c298$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.25440.7%22 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed No55c265$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.252236.4%8 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+29.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No59c240.51$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.1250633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e8f…b7fdbacked No43c231.07$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.07933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x757b…d066backed No55c220$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x324c…f5acbacked Yes38c160$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed Yes40c156$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634650%23 W · 23 L+8.3wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+61.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed No63c151$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8710232.4%33 W · 69 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffc…6988backed Yes45c150$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.52437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+43.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf129…5680backed Yes42c146.02$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.082532%8 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a86…0a3fbacked No59c138.49$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked No58c130$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.63754.1%20 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc93b…71aebacked Yes45c127$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8608…7b5cbacked Yes46c127$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.671643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb66c…f4abbacked Yes40c125.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc9f8…05fabacked Yes45c122$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f2…640cbacked Yes46c119$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13f1…e940backed Yes45c113$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39bd…7c8bbacked Yes45c112$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9a5…a909backed No55c111$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x280d…316ebacked Yes46c105$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x947d…17a9backed Yes39c104.51$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3722…21d2backed Yes46c104$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e5…cff1backed Yes39c102.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x92fd…f454backed No64c100.24$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x581d…24c3backed Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433847.4%18 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c7…de48backed Yes37c99.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+89%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x07ca…d5e3backed No62c98$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc9a…f2f9backed No55c98$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab5c…2564backed Yes46c97$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a6…c820backed No55c95$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked No65c93$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.55875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+58.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc6aa…1a06backed No54c93$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc451…8841backed No54c85$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb50…0eedbacked No54c84$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28d0…6ef0backed Yes45c82$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x416d…a5febacked No63c79.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa18d…a276backed Yes45c75$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x925a…3e7fbacked Yes37c75$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.75757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x29e1…5e47backed No55c74$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6091…52bfbacked Yes45c73$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e19…a552backed Yes46c66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b7a…4817backed No57c65$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.953348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a2…15fabacked No54c59$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1885…e4f8backed No54c56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No56c55$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.255549.1%27 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1214…70a0backed Yes45c54$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d80…c2b7backed No55c54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1977…32e8backed No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182737%10 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffd…c854backed No55c48$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+78.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x71b7…958dbacked Yes42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a4d…caa6backed No60c44$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.62015%3 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-75.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20cf…de29backed No62c41$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec2d…7756backed No62c38$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes41c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.287126.8%19 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf0…e852backed Yes48c33.17$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed No54c32.9$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.143372.7%24 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1698…9aafbacked No63c27.73$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x42fc…ad4dbacked No55c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f0…1af3backed No55c21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0710…42a2backed No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.83076.7%23 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+16.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f2a…e924backed No55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.