World Politics · resolved market
Will Han Duck-soo register for presidential run?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92444f6e5e9b602f31b7ec0557d06cf855975b593bc0285012d762260856096f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $310,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $304,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $310,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 1c | 20,937$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.99 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…31e9backed Yes | 1c | 19,445$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 19,400$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 19c | 19,000$3,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,594.95 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 10c | 17,949$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,720.25 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff9e…56a1backed No | 68c | 10,548$7,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,359.06 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…c12dbacked No | 22c | 9,843$2,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,679.52 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 1c | 8,484$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 3cpaid | +375.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd303…9c76backed No | 65c | 8,000$5,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,784.99 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…a348backed No | 71c | 7,983$5,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,282.74 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2f31backed Yes | 37c | 6,754$2,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,524.46 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d12…caa9backed Yes | 28c | 6,363$1,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,758.28 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 5,434$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 24c | 5,272$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.28 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb99f…62a0backed No | 8c | 3,593$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,292.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +299.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked No | 16c | 2,749$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,312.71 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,613$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.43 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed No | 77c | 1,890$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.4 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a45…d5f8backed Yes | 35c | 1,565$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.35 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -95.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6091…972bbacked No | 65c | 1,500$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 4c | 1,428$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e98…ae0fbacked Yes | 79c | 1,300$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.8 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…351dbacked No | 74c | 1,165$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.43 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x287a…9ee2backed No | 55c | 1,112$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.61 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +8.0wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6c58…c2ddbacked No | 73c | 1,098$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.22 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…93c9backed Yes | 3c | 1,054$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x641e…aeb7backed No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.05 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…17ddbacked No | 8c | 950.76$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.6 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 9c | 901.28$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.85 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 866.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed No | 8c | 668.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.61 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7584…d6e6backed No | 14c | 629.55$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.09 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 18cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5dff…c07ebacked No | 9c | 605.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 32c | 492.14$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.89 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d07…293fbacked Yes | 3c | 483.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 19cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 60c | 480$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x626b…3189backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 28c | 367.45$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.67 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…1cb2backed No | 22c | 362.46$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.46 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 15c | 334.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 299.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.89 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 260.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…abd1backed Yes | 17c | 244.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd1…9249backed No | 16c | 216.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.66 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb21…8145backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca3b…4d0fbacked No | 8c | 200$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 17c | 183.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.27 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 28c | 159.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac1…6b06backed No | 30c | 143.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.33 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db1…46a4backed Yes | 20c | 141.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 48c | 141.15$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 22c | 140.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 61c | 124.56$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf70f…d753backed Yes | 32c | 111.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c8…3c9cbacked No | 20c | 99.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +559.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 75c | 93.56$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 21c | 93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda0b…f4f6backed Yes | 33c | 91.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…2992backed No | 30c | 76.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 46c | 71.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ed…db2fbacked No | 20c | 71.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 17cpaid | +178.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked No | 23c | 66.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked Yes | 25c | 63.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5509…101cbacked No | 74c | 59.44$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -43%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 64c | 59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4601…83b8backed No | 25c | 54.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.79per pick | 22cpaid | +377.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed Yes | 76c | 53.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4705…fdfbbacked Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…4a58backed Yes | 50c | 39.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73de…c416backed No | 60c | 31.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…d97cbacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…7358backed Yes | 49c | 28.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe09f…0e53backed Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.