NFL · resolved market
Will the Bills beat the Colts by 4 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb831af1664cf5f8d0bc463d35616846b3f93e432a455e4fcfe9e9e78074a0e00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Billsof Bills, Colts
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 7 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Colts | 43c | 1,289$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.43 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Bills | 57c | 964.91$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.91 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…59e2backed Colts | 42c | 335.52$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.92 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Bills | 55c | 318.55$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.55 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Bills | 58c | 215.52$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Bills | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9392…1ff3backed Bills | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bills beat the Colts by 4 or more points?this page
- Will the Bears beat the Patriots by 7 or more points?Patriots won
- Will the Eagles beat the Cowboys by 7 or more points?Eagles won
- Will the Falcons beat the Saints by 4 or more points?Saints won
- Will the Giants beat the Panthers by 7 or more points?Panthers won
- Will the Lions beat the Texans by 4 or more points?Texans won
- Will the Vikings beat the Jaguars by 7 or more points?Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.