NFL · resolved market
Will the Steelers beat the Browns by 4 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8967cdb04c0b0cc4d34a761f78000d48385a8fa404ff5008ceb632fc7aa36e4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brownsof Steelers, Browns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd398…c487backed Steelers | 52c | 15,697$8,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,210.24 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -8.7wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -37%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Browns | 47c | 10,269$4,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,445 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c80…a608backed Browns | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,099.98 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…822ebacked Steelers | 51c | 2,535$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292.74 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Steelers | 53c | 1,100$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.43 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Steelers | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…537abacked Steelers | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed Browns | 46c | 528.58$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.16 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…824ebacked Browns | 59c | 520.08$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.08 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Browns | 47c | 510$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.6 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Browns | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8053…2a8ebacked Steelers | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Steelers | 54c | 268.52$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…c5b2backed Browns | 52c | 211.97$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.79 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef1…7772backed Steelers | 59c | 169.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbe…ee8dbacked Steelers | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Browns | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab79…695fbacked Steelers | 51c | 92.16$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Steelers | 58c | 89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -5.8wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed9…906abacked Steelers | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Browns | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…4b6fbacked Steelers | 53c | 55.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Browns | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…3b35backed Steelers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4703…3de0backed Steelers | 52c | 35.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.