Music · resolved market
Will 'Honey' be the least streamed song on The Life of a Showgirl on Oct 10th?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97b4c8524b110df20ce187ba92caa9745d2bcec5980c4276a0742fcdcc2fb809
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 5,574$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked No | 2c | 2,054$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 17c | 1,967$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.7 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 73c | 1,509$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.52 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 10c | 972.39$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.32 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 18c | 745$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.46 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 8c | 586.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…2657backed Yes | 76c | 572.01$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.49 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…c86ebacked No | 3c | 416.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 4c | 401.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…58a8backed No | 18c | 281.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked No | 6c | 249$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 12c | 205.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 26c | 200.46$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 32c | 140.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 27c | 78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 71c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 31c | 64.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…4378backed Yes | 73c | 63.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Honey' be the least streamed song on The Life of a Showgirl on Oct 10th?this page
- Will 'Eldest Daughter' be the least streamed song on The Life of a Showgirl on Oct 10th?No won
- Will 'Elizabeth Taylor' be the least streamed song on The Life of a Showgirl on Oct 10th?No won
- Will 'Ruin The Friendship' be the least streamed song on The Life of a Showgirl on Oct 10th?No won
- Will 'The Life of a Showgirl (feat. Sabrina Carpenter)' be the least streamed song on The Life of a Showgirl on Oct 10th?No won
- Will 'Wi$h Li$t' be the least streamed song on The Life of a Showgirl on Oct 10th?No won
- Will 'Wood' be the least streamed song on The Life of a Showgirl on Oct 10th?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.