NFL · resolved market
Bears vs. 49ers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x298412f28ed641a772a9b920ad3f6095f3baf5a67b3d0b4e30776aeb00eb6478
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 49ersof Bears, 49ers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $221,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $254,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $221,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 296 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed 49ers | 61c | 27,021$16,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,453.46 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…c4c8backed Bears | 23c | 15,091$3,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,521.85 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94dc…c779backed 49ers | 67c | 12,090$8,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,989.82 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dda…8b1ebacked 49ers | 60c | 9,223$5,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,667.03 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed 49ers | 77c | 9,119$7,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,097.93 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…de0cbacked Bears | 40c | 8,465$3,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,373.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…4f2dbacked Bears | 39c | 8,342$3,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,233.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe877…bb43backed Bears | 19c | 8,176$1,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…339bbacked Bears | 40c | 7,379$2,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,951.73 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4851…16dbbacked Bears | 33c | 7,138$2,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,355.58 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed 49ers | 63c | 6,728$4,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,489.32 | 165 | 45.5%75 W · 90 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed 49ers | 74c | 6,478$4,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,688.25 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -7.9wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -45%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Bears | 3c | 6,347$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.02 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Bears | 1c | 5,038$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…6af8backed 49ers | 65c | 5,000$3,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750 | 125 | 70.4%88 W · 37 L | +12.8wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa19a…2f33backed Bears | 39c | 5,000$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…9194backed Bears | 37c | 4,653$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,719.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae76…dce5backed Bears | 34c | 4,463$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505.74 | 273 | 39.2%107 W · 166 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked 49ers | 61c | 4,027$2,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,552.12 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Bears | 37c | 4,000$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d52…94c4backed Bears | 37c | 4,000$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f59…a01abacked 49ers | 64c | 3,514$2,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265.04 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked 49ers | 60c | 3,228$1,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.2 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfa…a0dabacked 49ers | 61c | 3,002$1,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.61 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…ece3backed 49ers | 62c | 3,000$1,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.56 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…f4c0backed Bears | 40c | 3,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked 49ers | 63c | 3,000$1,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.99 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…4157backed 49ers | 62c | 2,823$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf84b…3e6cbacked Bears | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…abd2backed Bears | 39c | 2,500$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.99 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked 49ers | 63c | 2,200$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.96 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b39…eeaabacked Bears | 9c | 2,178$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.6 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Bears | 37c | 2,031$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.34 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5e…c869backed 49ers | 63c | 1,800$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6964backed Bears | 7c | 1,768$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c7…fa37backed Bears | 1c | 1,653$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed 49ers | 61c | 1,639$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.34 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5d…7e9ebacked 49ers | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.79 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +4.7wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc64d…a1c9backed Bears | 39c | 1,230$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.72 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b0…69c8backed 49ers | 78c | 1,181$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.7 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…902bbacked 49ers | 65c | 1,077$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.92 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…05f6backed Bears | 1c | 1,014$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Bears | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Bears | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked 49ers | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c6…2ef0backed Bears | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed 49ers | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb88d…291abacked Bears | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed 49ers | 71c | 750$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8184…eba0backed Bears | 2c | 711.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed 49ers | 61c | 699.99$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 147 | 57.1%84 W · 63 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed 49ers | 60c | 699.63$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.85 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Bears | 28c | 685.41$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.1 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…046ebacked 49ers | 62c | 671.47$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.16 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Bears | 40c | 625$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x856e…3416backed 49ers | 62c | 564.52$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.52 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2e…182dbacked Bears | 21c | 555.24$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.1 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Bears | 18c | 522.08$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.32 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…e0d3backed 49ers | 61c | 513$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.07 | 198 | 64.6%128 W · 70 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Bears | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…bb92backed 49ers | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed 49ers | 61c | 444$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.16 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51c2…2b13backed Bears | 36c | 413.89$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d31…2cbfbacked 49ers | 65c | 413.85$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.85 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d69…9829backed 49ers | 75c | 398.61$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.98 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59b…488ebacked Bears | 35c | 375.9$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.54 | 140 | 22.9%32 W · 108 L | -12.8wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd2…d60fbacked 49ers | 72c | 365.87$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.45 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Bears | 5c | 310$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 431 | 1.6%7 W · 424 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e9…3083backed 49ers | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…0c2ebacked 49ers | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed 49ers | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…7cdbbacked Bears | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed 49ers | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 161 | 39.1%63 W · 98 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…4850backed Bears | 34c | 295.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked 49ers | 76c | 292.11$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dec…50dabacked Bears | 37c | 280.13$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61a6…ad90backed 49ers | 65c | 280$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc828…8304backed Bears | 37c | 273.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddc8…951abacked 49ers | 64c | 271.55$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.76 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Bears | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 278 | 35.3%98 W · 180 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed Bears | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ed…4d6abacked Bears | 37c | 250$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.78 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…0952backed Bears | 5c | 243.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed 49ers | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 162 | 59.9%97 W · 65 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…a572backed 49ers | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 92 | 68.5%63 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…d485backed 49ers | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4d…5867backed Bears | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…a821backed 49ers | 76c | 198.77$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 128 | 42.2%54 W · 74 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf631…e20fbacked Bears | 31c | 194.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedd5…63a1backed 49ers | 62c | 193.55$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.55 | 158 | 58.9%93 W · 65 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…a82dbacked Bears | 39c | 192.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Bears | 40c | 187.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…9471backed Bears | 40c | 186.88$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19dd…2cffbacked 49ers | 61c | 178.67$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7958…eeffbacked 49ers | 62c | 175$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…f39bbacked 49ers | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Bears | 40c | 162.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…558cbacked 49ers | 62c | 162.16$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 162 | 75.3%122 W · 40 L | +17.3wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef6…eb68backed 49ers | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04fa…6c06backed 49ers | 64c | 160$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.