Ukraine · resolved market
Zelensky remains President of Ukraine through September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x687b8358ae0cbc82595c58a9f00ab1f12ab447c63a8940eaa3f522f10685dfcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $209,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $236,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $209,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d23…8f86backed No | 4c | 26,459$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -84%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 4c | 8,906$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.73 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x518b…c470backed No | 2c | 7,742$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe384…bc6bbacked No | 0c | 6,674$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2335…4ebdbacked No | 4c | 5,939$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 2c | 5,282$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.32 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 8c | 5,246$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.38 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked No | 0c | 4,525$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed No | 0c | 4,450$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +85%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4abb…67b8backed No | 5c | 2,816$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 1c | 2,808$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cf…b8d3backed No | 3c | 2,728$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 3c | 2,545$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.17 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 1c | 2,349$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 4c | 2,088$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.89 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed No | 4c | 1,617$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d7…1b55backed No | 2c | 1,390$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a4…5d27backed No | 4c | 1,357$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8946…1b70backed No | 13c | 1,213$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…7d99backed No | 2c | 1,131$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed No | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed No | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09f3…c7bdbacked No | 11c | 909.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…1f07backed No | 4c | 810.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847a…f469backed No | 2c | 800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 10c | 754.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 5c | 634.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 9c | 629.03$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c0…7e81backed No | 4c | 535.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…3e0bbacked No | 4c | 534.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c1…3b16backed No | 4c | 516.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ef…2cf9backed No | 5c | 504.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ec…2d07backed No | 14c | 500$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x174e…ec1ebacked No | 8c | 465.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…b944backed No | 12c | 463.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9618…12d1backed No | 11c | 447.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…26ecbacked No | 6c | 309.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c3…31a2backed No | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b4…884ebacked No | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…be0dbacked No | 11c | 145.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.