WNBA · resolved market
Aces vs Liberty
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x133f79941d796e9ec31d1b4ea297afb26fd8cd9e96af8f0f768352a4ef31cafe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Libertyof Aces, Liberty
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9716…378abacked Aces | 36c | 4,331$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.48 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Liberty | 64c | 3,798$2,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.29 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Liberty | 63c | 3,130$1,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.19 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Aces | 40c | 2,418$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.5 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Liberty | 60c | 1,624$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.77 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Liberty | 62c | 1,310$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.54 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Aces | 36c | 1,304$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.44 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Liberty | 73c | 1,292$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.28 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Liberty | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Aces | 38c | 855.09$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.8 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Liberty | 62c | 669$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.22 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Aces | 36c | 652$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.72 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Liberty | 65c | 607$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.36 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Liberty | 63c | 599$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.47 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Liberty | 67c | 561.32$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.54 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Aces | 36c | 461.7$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.21 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6187…1746backed Aces | 34c | 350.5$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Aces | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Aces | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed Liberty | 65c | 275$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd22c…53e9backed Aces | 52c | 223$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db1…e434backed Liberty | 55c | 213.22$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Aces | 35c | 211.69$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…5ba5backed Liberty | 61c | 165.2$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.43 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Aces | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Liberty | 64c | 138$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Aces | 46c | 131.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Aces | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…0952backed Aces | 42c | 122.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 82 | 12.2%10 W · 72 L | -10.5wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x242f…565fbacked Aces | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Liberty | 63c | 116$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Liberty | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 232 | 34.5%80 W · 152 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Liberty | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 206 | 42.7%88 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0516…dbc2backed Aces | 34c | 60.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Aces | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…0e70backed Aces | 38c | 40.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Liberty | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ed82backed Liberty | 62c | 32.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc88f…987abacked Liberty | 67c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.