Us Midterms · resolved market
Will a Republican win Montana US Senate Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25e48d2f5c66a03982f233e67f8131159e884dc186e6a55cc2e413d07e74830c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $621,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $725,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $621,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2012…a7bdbacked Yes | 53c | 20,353$10,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,496.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 64c | 13,100$8,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,735.94 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 77c | 10,283$7,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,415.17 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 74c | 9,023$6,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,370.48 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 73c | 9,000$6,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,430 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 78c | 8,751$6,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,886.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5431…47e1backed Yes | 61c | 7,959$4,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,100.42 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 30c | 6,655$2,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,023.46 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 18c | 6,421$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.81 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 78c | 5,270$4,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.4 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 66c | 5,000$3,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,714.7 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa102…36d9backed No | 44c | 4,670$2,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,054.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ac…c125backed No | 26c | 4,235$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de4…b516backed No | 23c | 4,084$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed Yes | 71c | 3,500$2,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 78c | 3,010$2,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…d127backed Yes | 58c | 2,987$1,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.97 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +5.4wins | +0.45per pick | 39cpaid | +227.2%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x837f…7798backed No | 37c | 2,746$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa68e…2cf8backed No | 18c | 2,210$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…da79backed No | 45c | 2,040$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.91 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…3cd9backed No | 26c | 2,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed Yes | 74c | 1,907$1,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.9 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff92…f9b5backed No | 42c | 1,800$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 59c | 1,732$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.2 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20eb…9694backed Yes | 80c | 1,699$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes | 72c | 1,595$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.69 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3195…a94fbacked Yes | 59c | 1,502$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1c…33c1backed Yes | 64c | 1,491$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb60b…0573backed Yes | 70c | 1,437$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de5…cf05backed Yes | 76c | 1,325$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…c322backed No | 37c | 1,218$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed No | 49c | 1,200$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed Yes | 55c | 1,085$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.74 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…bdabbacked Yes | 63c | 1,037$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.87 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 18c | 999$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.82 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc462…5e7abacked Yes | 76c | 925.13$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed Yes | 73c | 850$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…c319backed Yes | 76c | 835.38$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed Yes | 66c | 650$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…0159backed No | 34c | 646.53$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.17 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x221b…a4fabacked No | 32c | 608.75$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked No | 23c | 599.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f6…58d6backed Yes | 58c | 576.52$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.42 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked No | 16c | 504$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…a49ebacked Yes | 77c | 501.97$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed No | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Yes | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3765…c121backed No | 28c | 474.71$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…d0cbbacked No | 21c | 462$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…44d6backed Yes | 57c | 456.14$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 20c | 449.94$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b7…93a9backed Yes | 79c | 448$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…3f7abacked Yes | 64c | 445$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed No | 39c | 419.98$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.31 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x622c…c68fbacked Yes | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…aadcbacked No | 17c | 399.8$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe896…0b70backed No | 32c | 391.18$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.18 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1a…efe7backed No | 19c | 340.21$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 63c | 317$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f9…fe71backed Yes | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…4a98backed Yes | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f36…f6bebacked Yes | 68c | 289.84$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x869f…a022backed Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 35c | 249.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.38 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51bf…a889backed No | 22c | 240.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 50c | 222$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dea…17ddbacked Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb6…b0b6backed Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf739…947dbacked No | 40c | 180.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…7ffbbacked Yes | 60c | 179$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…da0dbacked No | 43c | 178.95$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2d…1c65backed Yes | 80c | 165.28$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…039ebacked Yes | 72c | 158.7$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbba…df84backed Yes | 66c | 158.69$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f3…3d8abacked Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +64%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ce…cfa1backed Yes | 65c | 153.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019e…af1dbacked Yes | 56c | 148.27$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.24 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…eb0abacked Yes | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b13…c007backed Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +74%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x407f…cab8backed Yes | 68c | 132.35$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa386…a3aebacked Yes | 55c | 131.21$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6eb…4c8bbacked Yes | 61c | 130.3$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d53…ca87backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c6…3bd6backed Yes | 63c | 128.05$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141b…7918backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c4…55cfbacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d26…6696backed No | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…f322backed Yes | 61c | 124.51$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…0d9ebacked Yes | 63c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33b…c49abacked Yes | 63c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbe…4dbdbacked Yes | 63c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Republican win Montana US Senate Election?this page
- Will a Democrat win Montana US Senate Election?No won
- Will a candidate from another party win Montana US Senate Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.