TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will a candidate from another party win Montana US Senate Election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,701,137
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$430,303

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,701,137 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdba6…0218backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c36,467$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.231320.8%1 W · 131 L+0.5wins0.00per pick0cpaid+60.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ba4…2528backed Yes0c33,517$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdec9…07dfbacked Yes0c31,500$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb93…4cd5backed Yes0c25,024$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5686…78febacked Yes0c20,238$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46ca…9e89backed Yes0c19,500$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaafa…d0bdbacked Yes0c19,250$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2c5…1829backed Yes0c19,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0d…5f32backed Yes0c18,980$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f57…bec5backed Yes0c16,830$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecb2…b2fcbacked Yes0c16,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa5f…ea06backed Yes0c15,975$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf741…03c9backed Yes0c15,125$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d86…0005backed Yes0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x696b…94f5backed Yes0c14,843$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5642…faa3backed Yes0c14,689$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad76…532abacked Yes0c14,565$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x881c…4b62backed Yes0c14,525$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5467…9140backed Yes0c14,505$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b51…0fc7backed Yes0c14,450$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c3f…af65backed Yes0c14,444$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6994…6b7bbacked Yes0c14,443$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x188c…3d31backed Yes0c14,431$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94e5…372bbacked Yes0c14,394$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa079…850dbacked Yes0c14,358$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1738…3b19backed Yes0c14,328$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7d6…6354backed Yes0c14,154$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba87…dcc2backed Yes0c14,130$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa515…5f37backed Yes0c13,775$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf073…0749backed Yes0c13,537$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf835…79acbacked Yes0c13,177$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e88…529bbacked Yes0c13,162$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ff2…f644backed Yes0c13,100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05dc…a938backed Yes0c13,100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ecf…60f0backed Yes0c13,072$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1b6…a31ebacked Yes0c13,054$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76c8…9c52backed Yes0c13,019$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe331…a9d6backed Yes0c13,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9576…7cd2backed Yes0c13,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ef…3ab5backed Yes0c12,919$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8da…22cabacked Yes0c12,893$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8ed…a08ebacked Yes0c12,858$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb126…514bbacked Yes0c12,844$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04d9…8f09backed Yes0c12,822$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73bd…c320backed Yes0c12,818$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d2…6f9cbacked Yes0c12,800$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc354…8ba2backed Yes0c12,783$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7148…17d0backed Yes0c12,779$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d79…f34dbacked Yes0c12,755$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0893…61aebacked Yes0c12,749$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79f4…813fbacked Yes0c12,743$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69d8…f3adbacked Yes0c12,743$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7c7…3e1bbacked Yes0c12,719$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93a4…1d8abacked Yes0c12,689$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f50…3fa0backed Yes0c12,684$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1143…fcbfbacked Yes0c12,643$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f31…450abacked Yes0c12,629$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0832…9120backed Yes0c12,611$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5a9…13abbacked Yes0c12,599$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29d8…4160backed Yes0c12,530$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cc…bc92backed Yes0c12,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61d2…2960backed Yes0c12,488$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2411…58febacked Yes0c12,431$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe115…2a3ebacked Yes0c12,270$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78b5…ebbbbacked Yes0c12,219$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef1b…8903backed Yes0c12,206$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf33…0d31backed Yes0c12,156$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64f8…581abacked Yes0c12,150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c1e…450cbacked Yes0c12,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff2…5cd5backed Yes0c12,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x002a…8b7bbacked Yes0c12,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65ae…e68fbacked Yes0c11,991$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e1…50f8backed Yes0c11,878$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17b3…5e56backed Yes0c11,803$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0ce…e972backed Yes0c11,764$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6757…007abacked Yes0c11,603$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe17…98e9backed Yes0c11,263$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.261330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick25cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x981b…fd46backed Yes0c11,095$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e5c…d95abacked Yes0c11,025$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eb2…36c2backed Yes0c11,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15c5…499abacked Yes0c10,500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49aa…5b8abacked Yes0c10,250$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15f4…09ebbacked Yes0c10,238$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f24…fdd1backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fd8…075cbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0783…69d7backed Yes0c9,050$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c32…f256backed Yes0c8,649$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa437…dd0fbacked Yes0c8,500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaade…afc8backed Yes0c8,288$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe43…75ccbacked Yes0c8,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c32…c9f7backed Yes0c7,604$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x301f…ed0fbacked Yes0c7,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7939…6004backed Yes0c7,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6bd…5035backed Yes0c7,500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc0e…25a4backed Yes0c7,273$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb588…c66abacked Yes0c7,270$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bea…3a84backed Yes0c7,270$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97f9…961dbacked Yes0c7,255$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54ed…a669backed Yes0c7,254$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.