Movies · resolved market
Will "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 15m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe56c135913906cf5db7c0a1a79abff4148f1f6db2775c5bd7908a5ead1dc1a5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 68c | 8,368$5,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,637.27 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…b5b5backed Yes | 75c | 7,217$5,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,829.08 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed No | 23c | 2,500$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 17c | 1,508$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.07 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 79c | 1,136$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.79 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34f…db98backed Yes | 74c | 1,050$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1f…5868backed No | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…6a4fbacked Yes | 74c | 798.47$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 74c | 541.74$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.13 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x429f…42f8backed Yes | 74c | 473.08$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 31c | 400.08$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.97 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 67c | 352.79$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.12 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 78c | 338.15$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked No | 30c | 329.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 31c | 280$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…6c88backed No | 26c | 261.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c14…821ebacked No | 26c | 211.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed Yes | 73c | 205.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 22c | 140$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 10c | 139.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 27c | 133.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe664…bfb3backed Yes | 73c | 124$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…72cdbacked No | 35c | 115.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 76c | 88.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed No | 35c | 86.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 64c | 77.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee4…7c88backed No | 27c | 76.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked No | 26c | 64.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…ff72backed Yes | 68c | 62.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed Yes | 73c | 58.83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e06…c72cbacked No | 33c | 54.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 52.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 25c | 51.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -9.7wins | -0.27per pick | 46cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…b702backed No | 25c | 42.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 73c | 41.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked Yes | 76c | 38.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 44cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 61c | 34.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…3fa9backed Yes | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…8b21backed Yes | 80c | 30.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 70c | 28.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e56…356abacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebc…e384backed Yes | 44c | 26.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cad…5dd0backed Yes | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d55…e297backed Yes | 77c | 21.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…696ebacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…3e7abacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…f0f0backed Yes | 77c | 17.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 15m?this page
- Will "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 20m?No won
- Will "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 20m?No won
- Will "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 10m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.