Middle East · resolved market
Nasrallah remains leader of Hezbollah through August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x403d3424f8018ed63c777d6d21fbf7f2373a0bd77b09452c99fadd0b5b7057b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 2c | 19,559$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.03 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…61e6backed No | 28c | 9,125$2,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,575.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed No | 8c | 7,595$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.18 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1189…a9e0backed No | 10c | 6,023$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.26 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 2c | 5,226$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.99 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 3c | 3,085$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed No | 3c | 2,722$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 11c | 2,100$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…221dbacked No | 11c | 2,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5230…58f5backed Yes | 1c | 1,644$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,627.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +9,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…bbc0backed No | 11c | 1,600$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 5c | 1,398$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da7…ba93backed No | 10c | 1,186$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.57 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed No | 1c | 1,040$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…6a12backed No | 11c | 974.7$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed No | 5c | 854.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd993…844abacked No | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 3c | 614.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 7c | 515.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef4c…827cbacked No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…fdf3backed No | 9c | 346.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac57…1169backed No | 10c | 289.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 9c | 252.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 92 | 34.8%32 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed No | 10c | 240$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ee…2a09backed No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…3455backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed No | 11c | 163.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed No | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0e…d4e9backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70e…1eeabacked No | 11c | 106.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0651…5007backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 51c | 98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +6.3wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.