TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Devils vs. Golden Knights

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Devilsof Devils, Golden Knights
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,144,975
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,167,750

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,144,975 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 787 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a72…33eebacked Devils58c289,999$169,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120,511.21,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Golden Knights35c275,048$96,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96,555.362330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff7a…4c4cbacked Devils48c108,897$52,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,387.184247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Golden Knights52c55,000$28,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,849.9742552.2%222 W · 203 L+25.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Devils66c48,732$32,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,568.7930944.7%138 W · 171 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf1ff…e56abacked Golden Knights60c38,731$23,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,238.445749.1%28 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7178…0c07backed Golden Knights35c37,149$12,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,983.05728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-34.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Devils37c28,941$10,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,186.9830152.5%158 W · 143 L+17.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Golden Knights60c27,555$16,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,530.6148549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Devils44c24,061$10,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,505.1541850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Golden Knights56c20,000$11,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,2005425.9%14 W · 40 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Devils41c13,265$5,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,826.3456649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Devils41c12,900$5,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,61124349.8%121 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e6…025bbacked Devils44c11,690$5,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,509.871163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Golden Knights56c11,592$6,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,478.696833.8%23 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x490e…73adbacked Devils62c11,284$7,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,278.881662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Devils43c11,000$4,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,259.9911950.4%60 W · 59 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Golden Knights59c10,348$6,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,136.1726955.8%150 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Golden Knights37c10,112$3,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,692.682,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Golden Knights59c8,758$5,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,167.0388151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a76…d543backed Devils40c8,500$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Devils41c7,800$3,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,601.9932251.9%167 W · 155 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Devils41c7,665$3,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,522.236940.6%28 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Devils58c7,476$4,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,146.018252.4%43 W · 39 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Golden Knights44c7,041$3,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,121.6238738%147 W · 240 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Golden Knights45c6,772$3,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,071.7738748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d38ebacked Devils66c6,600$4,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,250.996958%40 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Devils38c6,325$2,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,948.2710554.3%57 W · 48 L+8.7wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Golden Knights61c6,151$3,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,729.541,63650.4%825 W · 811 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Golden Knights59c6,136$3,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,619.51,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Golden Knights60c6,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,60028652.4%150 W · 136 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Devils40c5,935$2,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,561.1850049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Golden Knights59c5,301$3,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,128.5828353%150 W · 133 L+16.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc078…fd4cbacked Golden Knights62c5,049$3,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,130.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Devils41c5,000$2,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,949.9914253.5%76 W · 66 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf9a…4f00backed Golden Knights62c4,946$3,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,066.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Devils70c4,935$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,485.3712552%65 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Devils38c4,602$1,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,873.2422150.2%111 W · 110 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Golden Knights58c4,280$2,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,488.4613333.1%44 W · 89 L-11.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x283d…0dadbacked Golden Knights62c4,105$2,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,542.945248.1%25 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Golden Knights59c4,090$2,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,413.124654.5%134 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03fc…a8e6backed Golden Knights59c4,070$2,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,396.6920%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Golden Knights60c4,000$2,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3808450%42 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Devils51c3,926$1,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,932.86527.7%18 W · 47 L-6.3wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-39.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Devils62c3,614$2,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,368.829926.4%79 W · 220 L-20.5wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-35.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Golden Knights59c3,439$2,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,029.0110158.4%59 W · 42 L+7.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+17.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Golden Knights59c3,367$2,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,002.0152050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Golden Knights42c3,350$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4003151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed Devils42c3,204$1,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,858.316254.8%34 W · 28 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Devils38c3,158$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,957.8960337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1534…4dfebacked Golden Knights63c2,999$1,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,889.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaef0…2237backed Devils37c2,988$1,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,882.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd7c…79a0backed Devils43c2,928$1,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,663.041136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Golden Knights55c2,810$1,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,545.3162951.2%322 W · 307 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Devils44c2,781$1,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,547.621952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8479…37f8backed Golden Knights19c2,727$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.454831.3%15 W · 33 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0488…10bfbacked Devils37c2,710$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,707.33100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+111.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0aa3…64e9backed Golden Knights59c2,708$1,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,597.932343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+52.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Golden Knights6c2,671$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.2429412.9%38 W · 256 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+45.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd78d…60bebacked Devils42c2,606$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,504.3413241.7%55 W · 77 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+70.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x96ca…5a71backed Golden Knights60c2,500$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50055446.4%257 W · 297 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Golden Knights59c2,500$1,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,474.9923751.5%122 W · 115 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Golden Knights49c2,454$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.181,35452.6%712 W · 642 L+46.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb525…bdc7backed Devils41c2,439$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.021241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1e0…8913backed Golden Knights59c2,381$1,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4052343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Devils36c2,373$854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,518.8969550.1%348 W · 347 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd5c…8ae8backed Golden Knights60c2,333$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4001127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-44.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1b8b…15babacked Golden Knights59c2,308$1,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,361.495549.1%27 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Devils66c2,289$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.051566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x86d5…6575backed Devils43c2,233$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,276.981020%2 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-61.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe529…245dbacked Devils55c2,109$1,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.691163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Golden Knights56c2,100$1,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.5899638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Golden Knights57c2,070$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1805453.7%29 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xace9…f74abacked Devils69c2,046$1,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.6712252.5%64 W · 58 L-10.7wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-13%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d9d…992bbacked Golden Knights49c2,044$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001250%6 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+25.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bb3…504fbacked Golden Knights60c2,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Devils43c2,000$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.9920751.2%106 W · 101 L+10.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Golden Knights61c1,990$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,209.941,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Golden Knights47c1,987$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.7295049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Golden Knights62c1,987$1,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,241.689249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Golden Knights59c1,978$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.041,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe26d…ec5dbacked Devils41c1,976$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,165.61250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd53e…e70cbacked Devils42c1,873$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,077.926246.8%29 W · 33 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb16…96b5backed Devils66c1,832$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.087450%37 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4be6…0b8dbacked Golden Knights60c1,823$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Golden Knights61c1,804$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.1297651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Devils37c1,752$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,096.351,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Devils38c1,750$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,08524845.2%112 W · 136 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Golden Knights39c1,734$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.1443742.3%185 W · 252 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked Devils41c1,732$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.7126946.1%124 W · 145 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd7…6497backed Devils41c1,712$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.08633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Golden Knights59c1,695$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00047256.8%268 W · 204 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Devils40c1,657$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.9832451.2%166 W · 158 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x98a3…d61ebacked Golden Knights61c1,617$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9804746.8%22 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Devils38c1,586$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.831,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x273c…7a42backed Devils60c1,578$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.8218159.7%108 W · 73 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe507…1258backed Devils42c1,525$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.482147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a2c…6962backed Golden Knights56c1,517$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Golden Knights57c1,513$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.4115949.7%79 W · 80 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a94…822cbacked Golden Knights59c1,500$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88510643.4%46 W · 60 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.