Middle East · resolved market
Will Beirut airport close by August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6aa8d3143ab6d8a4b456fa951dd8d515deec11d444fb4cc5abb9256dc5380d63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 8c | 6,399$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.28 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…d0cfbacked Yes | 9c | 5,825$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ca…0a6ebacked Yes | 11c | 3,914$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.16 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f5…9663backed Yes | 7c | 1,032$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.22 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…6498backed Yes | 8c | 1,032$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.86 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8259…bd18backed Yes | 13c | 999.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1189…a9e0backed Yes | 2c | 821.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x639b…99e7backed Yes | 16c | 600.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.63 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef4c…827cbacked Yes | 9c | 556.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 8c | 460.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 76c | 376.94$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.7 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2501…472cbacked Yes | 18c | 330.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f04…4502backed Yes | 16c | 270.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac57…1169backed Yes | 19c | 234.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked No | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.19 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…04b7backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 35cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 13c | 174.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -87%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…eea0backed Yes | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…408cbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…45e5backed Yes | 46c | 96.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 37c | 77.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed Yes | 14c | 75.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…a9d7backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b45…a669backed Yes | 15c | 68.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 58c | 66.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes | 28c | 66.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70e…1eeabacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…b4c3backed No | 73c | 37.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cb…b053backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 46c | 27.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…c93bbacked Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e00…3bc1backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7920…096bbacked No | 76c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…e856backed No | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.