NFL · resolved market
Will the opening kickoff in Super Bowl LIX result in a touchback?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x549d7e5ff638ae166994a0a1f60b57739536c2c7e899fe934f699469cf42ef3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 70c | 1,299$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.7 | 52 | 76.9%40 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 30c | 1,274$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.18 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…059abacked Yes | 70c | 601.78$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.53 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…ca61backed Yes | 70c | 381.45$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.82 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked No | 28c | 345.3$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.3 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf482…d3c3backed No | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ead…761fbacked No | 30c | 256.17$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ee…3605backed Yes | 70c | 254.71$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc797…3a1cbacked No | 31c | 254.71$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 22c | 226.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…2a5fbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.12 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x003d…7a58backed No | 30c | 190$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 28c | 176.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 24c | 172$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.24 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…6802backed No | 29c | 165.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28b6…4eddbacked No | 30c | 161.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 70c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Yes | 55c | 150$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…3eeebacked Yes | 72c | 138.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…ac5abacked Yes | 72c | 138.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f79…6668backed Yes | 72c | 138.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed No | 49c | 119.69$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 69c | 110$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6425…b235backed Yes | 72c | 108.9$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…fc4cbacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…dcadbacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 28c | 92.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78fa…103abacked Yes | 72c | 83.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb1…cf90backed Yes | 72c | 79.47$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd74…8afebacked Yes | 72c | 76.07$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed No | 30c | 66.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x111f…af00backed Yes | 72c | 55.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe230…30c7backed No | 28c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec6…423cbacked Yes | 72c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…b532backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed No | 30c | 49.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +56%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed Yes | 72c | 41.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 91 | 81.3%74 W · 17 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9917…4976backed Yes | 72c | 20.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f38…98c3backed Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the opening kickoff in Super Bowl LIX result in a touchback?this page
- Will there be a an onside kick in Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will there be a kickoff return TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.