TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Australian Open Men's: Denis Shapovalov vs Marin Cilic

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cilicof Shapovalov, Cilic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$226,817
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$217,229

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $226,817 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 281 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5877…d894backed Shapovalov59c40,000$23,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,599.9811633.6%39 W · 77 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7249…9c6cbacked Shapovalov0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cilic46c19,071$8,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,244.478,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x779a…ca34backed Cilic46c17,864$8,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,725.054060%24 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Shapovalov59c11,855$6,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,992.751258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Cilic41c11,682$4,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,840.3276140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Shapovalov42c9,783$4,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,080.581,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb50…be06backed Shapovalov57c8,700$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001050%5 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked Cilic43c5,000$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,849.983537.1%13 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Cilic45c4,265$1,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,333.3311,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Shapovalov30c3,886$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.622,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Cilic42c3,300$1,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,911.962,37551.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L+8.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Shapovalov54c3,134$1,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,691.092,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed Cilic44c2,524$1,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,412.158158%47 W · 34 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed Shapovalov41c2,497$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.8613844.2%61 W · 77 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c7a…7625backed Cilic53c2,200$1,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.526045.4%118 W · 142 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe394…289cbacked Cilic48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,04028451.1%145 W · 139 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b5e…61b4backed Cilic44c1,942$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,082.4137444.1%165 W · 209 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09df…5ca9backed Shapovalov57c1,863$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.862157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+48%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Shapovalov56c1,780$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.893055.8%519 W · 411 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Shapovalov57c1,769$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.879546.3%44 W · 51 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+35.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Shapovalov60c1,667$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00044754.4%243 W · 204 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Shapovalov60c1,377$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.231,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Cilic46c1,294$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.957,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Shapovalov25c1,281$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.892,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea63…682cbacked Shapovalov10c1,253$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.35742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…7295backed Shapovalov67c1,203$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80618663.4%118 W · 68 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Cilic43c1,200$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.991,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Cilic59c1,162$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.5957939.7%230 W · 349 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Shapovalov54c1,089$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.81478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Shapovalov58c1,004$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.3123945.6%109 W · 130 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e78…52b5backed Cilic60c1,001$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.959348.4%45 W · 48 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3daf…e888backed Cilic53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4702218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-61.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb101…5024backed Shapovalov51c989.11$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.45633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-53.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Cilic51c980.39$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.3944163.7%281 W · 160 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Cilic40c940$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.427733.6%93 W · 184 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc452…7234backed Shapovalov56c892.86$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010453.8%56 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa995…3d50backed Cilic41c787.46$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.462751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Cilic48c766.18$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.7259151.6%305 W · 286 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb8…3058backed Shapovalov68c735.49$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007865.4%51 W · 27 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Shapovalov57c676.59$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.454,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe889…d0c3backed Shapovalov56c651.57$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.3617432.2%56 W · 118 L-15.1wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x44f8…2d91backed Cilic38c532.84$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.846336.5%23 W · 40 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-30.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Cilic40c525$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3157,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0306…dcf6backed Shapovalov58c500$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29014663%92 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87e8…5e6ebacked Shapovalov58c478.8$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28041955.8%234 W · 185 L-0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Shapovalov60c455.43$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.262,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0007…3545backed Cilic44c454.55$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.552231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef13…53d2backed Shapovalov21c452.38$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9525043.2%108 W · 142 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Shapovalov55c443.98$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.1922344.8%100 W · 123 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Cilic56c420.87$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.1188455%486 W · 398 L+37.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf74d…9930backed Shapovalov69c417.77$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28826158.2%152 W · 109 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4338…648ebacked Cilic48c385.68$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.821154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Cilic51c377.62$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.6412445.2%56 W · 68 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Shapovalov51c374$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.011,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca39…4ed7backed Shapovalov57c350.88$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014060.7%85 W · 55 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf688…9595backed Shapovalov57c347.94$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick67cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Shapovalov52c336$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.4399044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e66…01cbbacked Shapovalov32c332$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.1410827.8%30 W · 78 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-29.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Shapovalov23c324.73$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2722236.9%82 W · 140 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd402…5a50backed Cilic41c310$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.929661.5%182 W · 114 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b7f…e826backed Shapovalov59c304.37$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.6569350.5%350 W · 343 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Cilic45c265.81$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.9310247.1%48 W · 54 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5995…3385backed Cilic40c249.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.58944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Shapovalov48c248.92$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8139850%199 W · 199 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Cilic41c245.92$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.0973048.8%356 W · 374 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Shapovalov57c233.33$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13351849.4%256 W · 262 L-1.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc3…9d67backed Cilic43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.5639431%122 W · 272 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cbf…82abbacked Shapovalov56c232.14$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1302250%11 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Cilic49c220.34$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.8914947.7%71 W · 78 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe70f…d5d5backed Cilic70c218.8$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.792986.2%25 W · 4 L+5.2wins+0.18per pick68cpaid+27.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Cilic40c200$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12112740.2%51 W · 76 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-13%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdac1…c3e1backed Cilic33c200$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1346839.7%27 W · 41 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+2.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x101c…4392backed Shapovalov55c199.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.993836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Shapovalov57c180$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.616146.6%75 W · 86 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c89…2db9backed Shapovalov42c178.57$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752835.7%10 W · 18 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-31.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Shapovalov56c178.36$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6228952.6%152 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5baf…3e56backed Shapovalov45c177.69$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.365840.9%269 W · 389 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0d8…58b5backed Cilic46c177.16$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.671861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Shapovalov17c175.58$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.972,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39a8…f170backed Shapovalov57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004438.6%17 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c2c…90d4backed Shapovalov57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10023454.7%128 W · 106 L+10.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3d4…6297backed Cilic48c175.4$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.9216144.7%72 W · 89 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Shapovalov56c174.68$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8222037.7%83 W · 137 L+1.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7800…6ddbbacked Shapovalov58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002669.2%18 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+40.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb327…0fccbacked Shapovalov58c170.69$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1225…33bfbacked Shapovalov59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003053.3%16 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Shapovalov32c158.83$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.371,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6387…9d9bbacked Cilic53c154.55$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.43852.6%20 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+20.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Cilic58c150$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632450%12 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x748f…1b7ebacked Shapovalov56c150$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Shapovalov7c150$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.54599.6%44 W · 415 L+1.9wins0.00per pick9cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bc5…908abacked Shapovalov67c150$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.558753.7%315 W · 272 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e38…3758backed Cilic44c150$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa743…cddabacked Shapovalov56c149$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb41e…2d8ebacked Cilic44c149$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…32c5backed Shapovalov56c148$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0286…8f0abacked Cilic44c148$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac8c…60fbbacked Cilic44c148$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0742…6f22backed Shapovalov56c148$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.