Earnings · resolved market
Will McDonald's (MCD) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c4bcec8f6f5ee103db7aba0177bf8b9673cea3b2dc2f31ebbfa20ae824a3069
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 24c | 1,044$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.89 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 16c | 354$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1301…2cf7backed Yes | 79c | 189.72$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 76c | 176$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked No | 22c | 144.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 262 | 50.4%132 W · 130 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 26c | 115.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked Yes | 78c | 114$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…5cffbacked Yes | 65c | 110.66$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -6.1wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8998…2707backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…059abacked Yes | 71c | 92.52$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…ed2dbacked No | 29c | 70.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 68c | 68.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44dd…1f8cbacked Yes | 79c | 62.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccb…b632backed Yes | 70c | 55.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 78c | 51.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x561b…9b6cbacked Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 141 | 71.6%101 W · 40 L | +22.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 69c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 64c | 32.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a8…71d7backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…1d3cbacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 62c | 26.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b50…71c9backed Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed Yes | 50c | 22.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 168 | 64.3%108 W · 60 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4194…9809backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 78cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked Yes | 67c | 17.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf62…fceebacked Yes | 79c | 16.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.