TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Earnings · resolved market

Will TKO Group Holdings (TKO) beat quarterly earnings?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,756
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,191

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,756 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Earnings
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x42f1…4a12backed No44c5,649$2,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,154.924100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+86.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes38c4,935$1,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,864.5576137.6%286 W · 475 L+35.5wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5651…7530backed No68c3,087$2,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.282100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd555…e28abacked Yes35c1,095$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.4321639.4%85 W · 131 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+31.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes39c999.98$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.474427.3%12 W · 32 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+22.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a1d…51e0backed No60c999.17$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.542100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdacf…8d11backed Yes45c997.3$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.148541.2%35 W · 50 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes42c822.79$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34517226.7%46 W · 126 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes4c765.4$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6250%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fa9…ab24backed No56c440$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.85785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick56cpaid+39.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed No71c420.09$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.448267.1%55 W · 27 L+11.7wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+18.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No60c370.97$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.041910.5%2 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-47.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No24c299.47$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22826334.6%91 W · 172 L-14.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes39c296.76$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.4115564.5%100 W · 55 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes32c290$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.88048.8%39 W · 41 L+8.9wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+22.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes52c268.7$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14013960.4%84 W · 55 L+14.8wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+34.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9256…2e8bbacked No29c247.47$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.698161.7%50 W · 31 L+8.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x470d…b463backed Yes41c227.48$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.447561.3%46 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No30c200$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14067442.7%288 W · 386 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x06d0…059abacked Yes45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes67c180$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.610272.5%74 W · 28 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe90a…06b7backed No30c154$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+76.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f51…2019backed Yes46c139.8$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6517441.4%72 W · 102 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes51c134.64$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3329024.1%70 W · 220 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1693…974ebacked No74c130.74$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.542080%16 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a0a…9229backed Yes78c129$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6211566.1%76 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked No66c122.37$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.37933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed Yes39c120.1$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.92520%5 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No42c114.26$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.4321820.2%44 W · 174 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x718a…5d86backed Yes77c110.19$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.744774.5%35 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick74cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d4e…18debacked Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-81.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe701…942ebacked Yes72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick73cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec1c…cd68backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ede…c417backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06e0…7934backed Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked No24c99.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.9921861%133 W · 85 L+11.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes38c94.73$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.98012.5%10 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-61.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeb9d…e31bbacked No20c89.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722955.2%16 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+106.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes76c79.15$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010067%67 W · 33 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes33c77.78$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267731.2%24 W · 53 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x902d…1f3fbacked No57c70.53$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.535356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf900…2e68backed Yes80c62.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505754.4%31 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e01…757abacked Yes38c53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.141266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed Yes72c52$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.445431.5%17 W · 37 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x217d…32d2backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.911771.8%84 W · 33 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaec0…b953backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.59016.7%15 W · 75 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-44.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.535635.1%125 W · 231 L+17.1wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+20.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2106…4deabacked Yes69c48$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.129761.9%60 W · 37 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5cc…0540backed Yes40c44.84$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b01…7481backed Yes42c44.82$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.82520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-75%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No30c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1315530.3%47 W · 108 L-20.2wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-43.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xee4a…b98abacked Yes75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7b8…8e45backed Yes71c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eea…f37cbacked Yes52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes33c36.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1546314.3%66 W · 397 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf597…f4aebacked Yes45c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52450%12 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44fa…ddabbacked Yes76c26.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201662.5%10 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick75cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe380…654abacked Yes76c26.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed Yes76c26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.764955.1%27 W · 22 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64d7…4d00backed Yes80c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1621357.3%122 W · 91 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x98cc…852fbacked Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed Yes80c18.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.151963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+26.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75a8…93edbacked Yes78c18.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a82…a904backed Yes79c18.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.