Earnings · resolved market
Will TKO Group Holdings (TKO) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91e382ae262dc07f6839fa413615d4211cccdb3d03cf32b7d591c59e0593528b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42f1…4a12backed No | 44c | 5,649$2,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,154.92 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 38c | 4,935$1,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,864.55 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5651…7530backed No | 68c | 3,087$2,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 35c | 1,095$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.43 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 39c | 999.98$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.47 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1d…51e0backed No | 60c | 999.17$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed Yes | 45c | 997.3$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.14 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 42c | 822.79$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 4c | 765.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…ab24backed No | 56c | 440$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.85 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 71c | 420.09$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.44 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 60c | 370.97$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.04 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 24c | 299.47$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 39c | 296.76$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.41 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 32c | 290$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 52c | 268.7$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked No | 29c | 247.47$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.69 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…b463backed Yes | 41c | 227.48$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.44 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…059abacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 67c | 180$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.6 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…06b7backed No | 30c | 154$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 46c | 139.8$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 51c | 134.64$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1693…974ebacked No | 74c | 130.74$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 78c | 129$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc214…105dbacked No | 66c | 122.37$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 39c | 120.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 42c | 114.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.43 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed Yes | 77c | 110.19$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.74 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe701…942ebacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…cd68backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…c417backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…7934backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.99 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 38c | 94.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 80 | 12.5%10 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked No | 20c | 89.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 76c | 79.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed Yes | 33c | 77.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x902d…1f3fbacked No | 57c | 70.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…2e68backed Yes | 80c | 62.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed Yes | 72c | 52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x217d…32d2backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…b953backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 69c | 48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 40c | 44.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b01…7481backed Yes | 42c | 44.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee4a…b98abacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…8e45backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eea…f37cbacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 36.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44fa…ddabbacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 75cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe380…654abacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…852fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 80c | 18.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75a8…93edbacked Yes | 78c | 18.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a82…a904backed Yes | 79c | 18.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.