NFL · resolved market
Who will win the Coin Toss: Chiefs or Eagles?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37d13f2f89fa04c2fd454ebd65debb6a1778d7575bf6775e30f0885010a7f0ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chiefsof Chiefs, Eagles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x624a…901fbacked Chiefs | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96a…396abacked Eagles | 49c | 1,929$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.18 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Eagles | 51c | 392.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.26 | 130 | 24.6%32 W · 98 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…16fbbacked Eagles | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…05e9backed Chiefs | 49c | 221.52$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee5e…ccddbacked Chiefs | 51c | 157.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e63…6a34backed Chiefs | 51c | 150.8$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd73…3cc4backed Eagles | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x120e…d3c3backed Chiefs | 51c | 105.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…059abacked Eagles | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8e…62bebacked Chiefs | 51c | 99.67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd249…6a1dbacked Chiefs | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Eagles | 49c | 97.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…dcadbacked Chiefs | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x214d…8911backed Eagles | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7af…c035backed Eagles | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Eagles | 49c | 45.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43e7…f880backed Eagles | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f55…580cbacked Eagles | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…784bbacked Eagles | 51c | 33.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…b118backed Eagles | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2558…9acebacked Eagles | 50c | 23.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073d…9c0dbacked Eagles | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc782…b521backed Chiefs | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…49b2backed Chiefs | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf09e…cbcbbacked Eagles | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cce…6594backed Chiefs | 51c | 23.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6c…b61fbacked Eagles | 51c | 23.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66d7…d11dbacked Eagles | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cac…96e5backed Chiefs | 51c | 22.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ea…43d1backed Eagles | 51c | 22.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd501…e032backed Eagles | 51c | 22.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e5…43d1backed Chiefs | 51c | 22.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3215…7759backed Eagles | 51c | 22.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa43d…a75dbacked Chiefs | 51c | 22.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3951…7485backed Chiefs | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b50…959ebacked Eagles | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…0af7backed Chiefs | 51c | 20.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Eagles | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7168…1d39backed Eagles | 51c | 20.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Chiefs | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae36…0dc6backed Eagles | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacd3…9e40backed Chiefs | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Who will win the Coin Toss: Chiefs or Eagles?this page
- Coin Toss: Heads or Tails?Tails won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.