TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Golden Knights vs. Canucks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Golden Knightsof Golden Knights, Canucks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$552,603
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$608,079

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $552,603 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 547 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03e8…1697backed Canucks31c112,716$34,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,94267051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Canucks32c67,862$21,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,715.9248545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Canucks31c39,757$12,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,324.81,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Golden Knights69c32,840$22,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,338.4461950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Golden Knights69c27,579$19,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,549.6247951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Golden Knights69c26,000$17,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,123.1832251.9%167 W · 155 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Canucks33c23,135$7,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,533.781,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Canucks31c21,278$6,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,597.3236748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3643…fd66backed Golden Knights69c18,363$12,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,782.023100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Canucks32c17,747$5,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,594.5727448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed Golden Knights68c15,390$10,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,924.793554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Canucks45c11,607$5,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,256.597258.3%42 W · 30 L+9.1wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+31.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4084…357abacked Golden Knights69c11,377$7,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,526.81757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Golden Knights69c10,706$7,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,320.421,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Golden Knights68c10,014$6,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,204.4816656.6%94 W · 72 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Golden Knights69c9,604$6,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,977.354047.5%19 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Golden Knights69c9,600$6,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,97618641.9%78 W · 108 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2305…0acebacked Golden Knights69c9,593$6,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,973.83850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Golden Knights68c9,094$6,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,910.0848549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x844e…4efdbacked Golden Knights70c9,000$6,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,669.995276.9%40 W · 12 L+11.6wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+42.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Canucks31c8,000$2,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,48026058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x31c1…7047backed Golden Knights68c7,927$5,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,513.484151.2%21 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Canucks31c7,419$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.9738849.5%192 W · 196 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ce…a992backed Golden Knights50c7,014$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,513.8712328.5%35 W · 88 L-9.2wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-34.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Golden Knights69c6,997$4,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,169.175251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Golden Knights69c6,882$4,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,133.364139%16 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9902…34b3backed Canucks25c6,617$1,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,652.0410941.3%45 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea28…383ebacked Golden Knights69c6,534$4,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,025.54540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-42%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7e3…d750backed Golden Knights69c6,488$4,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,011.41942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Canucks33c6,245$2,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,079.0589636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Golden Knights68c6,047$4,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,935.091,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Golden Knights70c5,943$4,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,757.32356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Golden Knights69c4,638$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,437.6824749.8%123 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Golden Knights68c4,500$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,44027850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed Golden Knights68c4,444$3,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,422.08771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+28.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Golden Knights68c4,000$2,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,28043548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Golden Knights69c3,970$2,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250.4126750.2%134 W · 133 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb546…802cbacked Golden Knights69c3,921$2,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,215.44944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick69cpaid-34%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Canucks43c3,658$1,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,556.9914946.3%69 W · 80 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Golden Knights68c3,500$2,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1209751.5%50 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Golden Knights68c3,500$2,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,12060249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Canucks31c3,500$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08527547.6%131 W · 144 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Golden Knights69c3,315$2,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.6520756.5%117 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4285…cfb5backed Golden Knights69c3,232$2,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.886758.2%39 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Golden Knights69c3,200$2,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9927737.7%29 W · 48 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Canucks37c3,160$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,179.871,84657.2%1,055 W · 791 L+85.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6c4…ee30backed Canucks32c3,125$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Golden Knights68c3,038$2,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.242,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Golden Knights68c3,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9605756.1%32 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Golden Knights68c3,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.8951452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0780…b0e9backed Golden Knights69c2,976$2,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.522100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+86.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked Golden Knights68c2,422$1,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.429038.9%35 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Canucks31c2,300$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.6576950.3%387 W · 382 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6236…1df8backed Canucks32c2,094$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.24546.7%21 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ff…24e3backed Golden Knights69c2,080$1,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.713743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Canucks50c2,025$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,016.6452172.6%378 W · 143 L+36.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c8a…8723backed Golden Knights75c2,002$1,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.671346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Golden Knights68c2,000$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.9820450%102 W · 102 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Golden Knights68c1,932$1,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.567755.8%43 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Golden Knights68c1,888$1,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.2689249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Golden Knights64c1,878$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.261050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9505…57acbacked Golden Knights70c1,851$1,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.213100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Canucks31c1,850$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.514954.4%81 W · 68 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9175…d70fbacked Golden Knights67c1,810$1,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.42548%12 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ca…e8d0backed Canucks36c1,737$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.56126.2%16 W · 45 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Golden Knights68c1,640$1,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.7159450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3233…a4ddbacked Golden Knights69c1,600$1,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4962356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Golden Knights68c1,584$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.8817042.4%72 W · 98 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Golden Knights68c1,555$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.611153.2%59 W · 52 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Golden Knights68c1,510$1,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.0841354.5%225 W · 188 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked Golden Knights69c1,449$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.282867.9%19 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f2d…8622backed Golden Knights69c1,449$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.282867.9%19 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Golden Knights68c1,441$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.1283149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7831…c197backed Golden Knights69c1,441$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.582142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Canucks31c1,426$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.161,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Golden Knights68c1,413$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.719150.8%97 W · 94 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Golden Knights62c1,347$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.9510947.7%52 W · 57 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Canucks14c1,328$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.59231.5%29 W · 63 L-12.7wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-43.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x23c7…329fbacked Golden Knights69c1,249$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.28933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-31%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e59…beeebacked Golden Knights67c1,240$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.934452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e3d…85abbacked Canucks41c1,214$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50011151.4%57 W · 54 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Canucks33c1,202$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.191,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Golden Knights68c1,137$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.6945955.1%253 W · 206 L+1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x665c…307bbacked Golden Knights68c1,106$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.371861.1%11 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6165…db3cbacked Golden Knights69c1,103$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.94348.8%21 W · 22 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-22.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Golden Knights68c1,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32045749.2%225 W · 232 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Golden Knights68c1,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32054047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4c2…640fbacked Golden Knights44c1,000$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5603154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+16.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbfc7…7f02backed Golden Knights69c1,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3105666.1%37 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x07d0…1310backed Canucks34c991.72$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.782560%15 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed Golden Knights69c921.74$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.7424952.2%130 W · 119 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a94…a3bebacked Golden Knights69c900.12$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.5610663.2%67 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Canucks29c900$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26116446.3%76 W · 88 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Golden Knights68c896.26$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.3414062.1%87 W · 53 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Golden Knights68c875$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2801,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Golden Knights68c872.79$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.793,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Golden Knights69c849.02$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.266552%346 W · 319 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f9f…0752backed Canucks35c848.9$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x307e…1cffbacked Golden Knights65c848.9$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe02…1204backed Golden Knights69c836.23$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.235052%26 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.