NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Canucks: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x261af5baed2d83422af902315ab121823c7488888f77a3eaa532b055e13507bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9762…73fbbacked Over | 63c | 903.17$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 39c | 846.45$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.42 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 44c | 545.53$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.3 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 20c | 530$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.7 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ba…b7bfbacked Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…702dbacked Over | 29c | 445.3$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 345.03$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.89 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Under | 37c | 302.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.88 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 210.29$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 63c | 202$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.71 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 38c | 164$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 72c | 137.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Over | 62c | 106.67$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 279 | 57.7%161 W · 118 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 63c | 87.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e0…3c1ebacked Under | 38c | 69.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…b8ccbacked Over | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Under | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 61c | 34.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Over | 59c | 21.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e1…d4d9backed Over | 62c | 18.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…7ca8backed Over | 62c | 17.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…49e4backed Over | 62c | 17.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87d…6f31backed Over | 62c | 17.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Under | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Canucks: O/U 5.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. CanucksGolden Knights won
- Golden Knights vs. Canucks: O/U 4.5Under won
- Golden Knights vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Golden Knights vs. Canucks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Canucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.