TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,403,455
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,626,833

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,403,455 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,325 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c3a…020bbacked Yes56c614,564$342,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272,297.121343.2%92 W · 121 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e0…024ebacked No44c176,998$77,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77,879.0610740.2%43 W · 64 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6a6…9458backed No45c175,000$78,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78,0004753.2%25 W · 22 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No52c170,526$88,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88,080.5156541.1%232 W · 333 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No56c160,960$90,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90,422.224,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Yes29c157,267$46,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111,151.2849441.5%205 W · 289 L+27.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed No50c117,279$58,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,580.7722139.8%88 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed No44c99,999$44,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,999.7674752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x087d…b872backed No44c93,487$41,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,134.289845.9%45 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes55c69,471$38,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,156.181,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes52c67,015$34,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,016.598,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Yes55c55,000$30,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,749.9813543%58 W · 77 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked No46c54,800$25,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,011.999943.4%43 W · 56 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed No48c50,008$24,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,061.0329740.1%119 W · 178 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f16…bbd9backed Yes53c46,309$24,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,695.981258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6157…9fb4backed Yes56c45,000$25,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,80012254.1%66 W · 56 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa66c…cd67backed Yes46c41,486$18,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,595.3618047.8%86 W · 94 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69d5…7767backed Yes57c36,801$20,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,824.855244.2%23 W · 29 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked No46c35,970$16,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,673.9821333.3%71 W · 142 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4301…f601backed No44c34,800$15,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,311.782931%9 W · 20 L-4.1wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-26.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes56c32,014$17,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,086.162,17138.2%829 W · 1,342 L-36.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed No45c30,021$13,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,555.033,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked No44c30,000$13,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,20014553.8%78 W · 67 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0c0…1bedbacked No43c29,040$12,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,487.146050%30 W · 30 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+56.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa04c…9e3fbacked Yes55c27,454$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,454.484136.6%15 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7879…3653backed Yes56c26,294$14,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,569.4522749.3%112 W · 115 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bc8…2f68backed No45c24,925$11,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,328.68938.2%34 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3cb…ac21backed No44c22,171$9,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,755.0613151.1%67 W · 64 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked No45c20,000$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,999.9115950.3%80 W · 79 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc41d…74fdbacked No49c18,832$9,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,221.0414139%55 W · 86 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes46c18,304$8,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,816.691,25239.2%491 W · 761 L+6.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-20.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked No45c18,255$8,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,230.112,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf072…467abacked Yes56c17,857$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,857.149446.8%44 W · 50 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfed1…eedbbacked Yes55c16,205$8,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,228.047448.6%36 W · 38 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c5…6930backed No44c16,110$7,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,088.276053.3%32 W · 28 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked No44c15,000$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,60029646.3%137 W · 159 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29cc…3c29backed No45c15,000$6,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,749.988139.5%32 W · 49 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca02…76d3backed No45c14,898$6,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,649.637835.9%28 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No44c14,520$6,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,386.821444.4%95 W · 119 L+8.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22ed…002bbacked No44c14,120$6,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,212.698631.4%27 W · 59 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19b5…c0aebacked Yes55c13,747$7,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,186.337757.1%44 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed No51c13,695$6,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,971.554,45737.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L+31.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked No46c12,698$5,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,834.871,87348.4%906 W · 967 L+14.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6203…6280backed No44c12,530$5,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,513.18940.4%36 W · 53 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0844…f46abacked No44c12,442$5,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,444.4746546.7%217 W · 248 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7349…cc3abacked Yes65c11,945$7,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,166.5320646.1%95 W · 111 L+12.9wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f2f…be86backed Yes53c11,460$6,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,386.21560%9 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+36.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf7c4…affabacked Yes49c11,197$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,697.452263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x65b5…aa71backed No46c11,126$5,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,154.240655.7%226 W · 180 L+17.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee0b…e6d4backed No43c10,465$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,499.956634.8%23 W · 43 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe987…f0e1backed No44c10,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,399.9638026.6%101 W · 279 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed No46c9,868$4,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,493.3243145.2%195 W · 236 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x158d…9c64backed Yes56c9,342$5,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,110.3913454.5%73 W · 61 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb82…f6babacked No45c8,963$4,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,033.22236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9caf…94dcbacked Yes56c8,929$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,928.579440.4%38 W · 56 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3486…0fc8backed Yes56c8,841$4,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,890.081485.7%12 W · 2 L+5.2wins+0.37per pick49cpaid+70.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Yes51c7,561$3,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,727.6887237.8%330 W · 542 L-39.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No46c7,369$3,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,375.212,80555.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L+70.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes51c7,081$3,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,479.794,02738.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L-26.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked No48c6,979$3,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3507545.3%34 W · 41 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d2e…896dbacked No47c6,917$3,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,250.9814843.2%64 W · 84 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe988…cf23backed No44c6,713$2,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,953.53438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cea…03d4backed No45c6,633$2,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,98519250%96 W · 96 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked No44c6,500$2,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8601,53649.1%754 W · 782 L+32.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed No52c6,272$3,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,255.692,81944.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L-36.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f354backed Yes52c6,251$3,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,972.1234845.1%157 W · 191 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7799…ebd7backed Yes54c5,556$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,555.561625%4 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-25.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe62c…97e1backed Yes56c5,515$3,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,426.5410138.6%39 W · 62 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes52c5,484$2,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,610.081,56339.8%622 W · 941 L-51.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa526…c9f9backed Yes55c5,455$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,454.554161%25 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe7e…6d00backed Yes56c5,357$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,357.1431644.9%142 W · 174 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc128…2217backed Yes56c5,241$2,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,305.8625228.2%71 W · 181 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x683a…3b03backed Yes38c5,203$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,202.667350.7%37 W · 36 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f5f…1695backed Yes29c5,172$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,672.4137223.9%89 W · 283 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2970…e1c9backed Yes56c5,000$2,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,22514351.7%74 W · 69 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4582…619ebacked Yes51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4508735.6%31 W · 56 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-36.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x96a3…d944backed Yes42c5,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,919.9926445.1%119 W · 145 L+17.5wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x09dd…7e13backed Yes39c4,995$1,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,023.6137944.1%167 W · 212 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e47…34a2backed No44c4,970$2,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,186.897342.5%31 W · 42 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62e0…32dfbacked Yes56c4,954$2,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,179.7117345.1%78 W · 95 L+11.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Yes53c4,950$2,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,326.5516546.1%76 W · 89 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf531…121cbacked Yes54c4,857$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,256.7417944.1%79 W · 100 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Yes52c4,830$2,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,341.111,43840.1%576 W · 862 L-40.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ff4…7ebbbacked Yes57c4,561$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,961.41827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Yes55c4,500$2,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,024.9943248.4%209 W · 223 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed No51c4,465$2,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.481,62732.1%523 W · 1,104 L+4.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x298c…3e58backed No45c4,444$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.83237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b46…8438backed Yes57c4,386$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,885.969454.3%51 W · 43 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe558…dcd2backed Yes47c4,288$2,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,285.0615843%68 W · 90 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked No45c4,090$1,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,840.64850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c65…f19dbacked Yes56c4,044$2,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,779.551369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb902…06d8backed Yes53c3,774$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,773.584564.4%29 W · 16 L+8.8wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+37.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0547…9926backed Yes56c3,750$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,65021443%92 W · 122 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb89c…b71dbacked Yes54c3,704$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,703.71984.2%16 W · 3 L+5.1wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+42.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb6ac…6b83backed Yes56c3,571$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,571.4319748.7%96 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc82f…66a7backed Yes57c3,509$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,508.7733235.5%118 W · 214 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15e9…26bebacked Yes43c3,500$1,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,004.998052.5%42 W · 38 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b57…5d9abacked Yes56c3,495$1,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,537.678156.8%46 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x502e…5442backed Yes54c3,494$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,593.9416746.7%78 W · 89 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa209…ffbebacked Yes80c3,392$2,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.7559453.4%317 W · 277 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.