Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ced81ce3b26db93beaa581613c58161ff5bfc4aa74748ec5380b120daf7cf87

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jun 30, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $251,425
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $257,866

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $251,425 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7e52…00f5backed Over	12c	33,160$3,979 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,979.18	216	40.7%88 W · 128 L	+8.2wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Over	11c	27,114$3,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,050.22	1,985	32.5%645 W · 1,340 L	-47.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Over	11c	18,887$2,078 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,077.57	320	29.4%94 W · 226 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over	7c	7,834$563 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$562.96	1,224	43.4%531 W · 693 L	-7.1wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over	4c	6,969$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.16	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc41e…e2e9backed Over	0c	6,420$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.09	36	2.8%1 W · 35 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	1cpaid	+177.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78b1…7d20backed Over	1c	2,896$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.65	53	35.8%19 W · 34 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27ea…863dbacked Over	10c	2,650$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.05	57	28.1%16 W · 41 L	-2.9wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae76…2763backed Over	11c	2,639$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	186	26.3%49 W · 137 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e98…1583backed Over	11c	2,400$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.4	83	49.4%41 W · 42 L	+6.0wins	+0.07per pick	42cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Over	11c	2,290$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.5	605	11.4%69 W · 536 L	-16.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-38%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Over	8c	1,843$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.43	372	23.4%87 W · 285 L	-25.7wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe34a…f5f0backed Over	9c	1,788$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.92	98	48%47 W · 51 L	+4.5wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Over	12c	1,783$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.06	372	37.4%139 W · 233 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over	11c	1,616$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.68	2,603	37.8%984 W · 1,619 L	-40.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf16…464ebacked Over	11c	1,373$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.35	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	8c	1,369$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.93	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09dd…7e13backed Over	9c	1,199$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.94	379	44.1%167 W · 212 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked Over	10c	1,100$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	50	24%12 W · 38 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	21cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0886…b3a6backed Over	12c	1,083$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	329	22.5%74 W · 255 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06f2…1269backed Over	10c	1,053$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.56	383	33.9%130 W · 253 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Over	11c	999.99$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107	471	27.8%131 W · 340 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9865…57acbacked Over	11c	909.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	109	11%12 W · 97 L	-9.4wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-66%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d6f…4997backed Over	11c	909.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	235	13.2%31 W · 204 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+52%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd34c…10b4backed Over	11c	909.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	724	24.7%179 W · 545 L	-9.4wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60f5…f491backed Over	11c	909.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	30	30%9 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8a8…f71cbacked Over	12c	806.58$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.79	26	50%13 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbec0…9bddbacked Over	6c	710.96$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.87	626	33.9%212 W · 414 L	-28.6wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Over	8c	609.74$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.69	312	32.4%101 W · 211 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over	3c	600$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x589a…8dc5backed Over	12c	569.58$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.35	87	25.3%22 W · 65 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over	7c	520.95$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.47	1,252	39.2%491 W · 761 L	+6.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x490f…a02dbacked Over	11c	520.62$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	257	37%95 W · 162 L	+9.5wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7696…2639backed Over	8c	501$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.06	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5537…f9c8backed Over	11c	454.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	194	42.3%82 W · 112 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf026…1e98backed Over	11c	454.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-41.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7803…132fbacked Over	11c	442.64$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.69	221	35.3%78 W · 143 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1db2…dacabacked Over	12c	400$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	193	24.9%48 W · 145 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over	10c	400$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	152	25.7%39 W · 113 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Over	4c	333.79$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.66	174	32.8%57 W · 117 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x786d…b89bbacked Over	12c	333.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	522	17.4%91 W · 431 L	-11.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-19%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0a2…b58ebacked Over	11c	325.55$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.81	70	22.9%16 W · 54 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Over	10c	310$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	438	19.2%84 W · 354 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3daf…19ebbacked Over	12c	300$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	534	36%192 W · 342 L	+12.3wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdec4…046fbacked Over	12c	291.67$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	345	26.1%90 W · 255 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d20…8515backed Over	10c	270$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+2.2wins	+0.16per pick	41cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x280e…b409backed Over	12c	250$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	128	18%23 W · 105 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a51…f305backed Over	11c	227.27$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	188	27.7%52 W · 136 L	-6.5wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over	11c	222$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.42	438	26.3%115 W · 323 L	+12.6wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1520…3a4cbacked Over	5c	216.88$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a3…1c2dbacked Over	12c	208.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c12…62ccbacked Over	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	69	26.1%18 W · 51 L	+5.6wins	+0.08per pick	18cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x914e…8355backed Over	12c	185.86$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.3	113	38.1%43 W · 70 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93a4…6bdbbacked Over	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	25%9 W · 27 L	+1.8wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe692…05e8backed Over	11c	180$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	82	25.6%21 W · 61 L	+3.7wins	+0.05per pick	21cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ad1…a4b6backed Over	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	47	17%8 W · 39 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bb1…daf7backed Over	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	188	21.8%41 W · 147 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x191e…dd9ebacked Over	12c	166.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.96	88	31.8%28 W · 60 L	-5.8wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Over	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	467	43.3%202 W · 265 L	-5.7wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06be…8a46backed Over	11c	150$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	99	19.2%19 W · 80 L	+3.7wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ad1…35d0backed Over	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-55%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Over	11c	136.36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1,388	15.1%210 W · 1,178 L	-16.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Over	9c	119.09$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.72	1,045	29.3%306 W · 739 L	-10.8wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7113…dba4backed Over	12c	116.67$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	823	40.9%337 W · 486 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4433…9d34backed Over	11c	104.82$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.53	788	35.3%278 W · 510 L	+9.6wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72bd…d37abacked Over	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	181	39.2%71 W · 110 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Over	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2180…5674backed Over	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	59	25.4%15 W · 44 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Over	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	135	31.9%43 W · 92 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e8…2c0ebacked Over	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	141	19.9%28 W · 113 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7e6…f87cbacked Over	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	99	56.6%56 W · 43 L	+9.1wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6aa4…236cbacked Over	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	131	42.7%56 W · 75 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5this page
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfYes won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5Over won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Netherlands 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Netherlands O/U 0.5Over won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Netherlands O/U 1.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Netherlands O/U 2.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5Over won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5Over won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5Under won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to AdvanceMorocco won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?Yes won
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?Yes won
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)Netherlands won
Spread: Morocco (-2.5)Netherlands won
Spread: Morocco (-4.5)Netherlands won
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)Morocco won
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)Morocco won
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)Morocco won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event