Fifa International · resolved market
World Cup Goals H2H: Yamal vs. Mbappe
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffc165c6533aa48fae0712225ff2fcdadcbfc56096af443e1136fb10223d4af2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mbappeof Yamal, Mbappe
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54c6…e5c2backed Yamal | 3c | 1,626$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yamal | 2c | 1,416$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yamal | 2c | 679.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 423 | 36.9%156 W · 267 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb723…d9dcbacked Yamal | 22c | 460$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa9…7633backed Yamal | 5c | 384.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 25.6%43 W · 125 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…c160backed Yamal | 27c | 366.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yamal | 25c | 305$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa32f…28bcbacked Yamal | 5c | 296.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b73…4218backed Yamal | 21c | 265.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…0093backed Yamal | 8c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda5…c82abacked Mbappe | 75c | 166.57$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yamal | 10c | 150.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Mbappe | 72c | 111$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 481 | 40.1%193 W · 288 L | -17.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yamal | 25c | 99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 188 | 48.9%92 W · 96 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ecb…26a9backed Mbappe | 75c | 99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c9…2dacbacked Yamal | 30c | 66.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Mbappe | 73c | 54.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 218 | 36.2%79 W · 139 L | -19.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yamal | 26c | 51.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 287 | 31%89 W · 198 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Mbappe | 74c | 51.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Mbappe | 73c | 50.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 333 | 45.3%151 W · 182 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1c…94d3backed Yamal | 30c | 47.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4410…8859backed Mbappe | 72c | 35.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed Mbappe | 59c | 34.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…4952backed Mbappe | 74c | 33.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x961b…2b00backed Mbappe | 71c | 30.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…79a9backed Mbappe | 78c | 25.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Mbappe | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Mbappe | 78c | 18.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 198 | 74.7%148 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.