NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebddd12eeec77899d74323ea445536b93cbc6fa8bc18942f427da249c5fa3336
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Thunder, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf284…b9f9backed Thunder | 53c | 11,032$5,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,846.93 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Thunder | 53c | 11,011$5,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,842.63 | 97 | 43.3%42 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…88a3backed Lakers | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,300 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Lakers | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650 | 139 | 54.7%76 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…7558backed Lakers | 47c | 3,131$1,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,659.65 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…0c42backed Lakers | 47c | 2,642$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.37 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7002…395cbacked Lakers | 49c | 1,773$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.04 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Lakers | 47c | 1,368$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.34 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Thunder | 51c | 1,150$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.79 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Thunder | 51c | 804.14$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.84 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…519dbacked Lakers | 51c | 585.41$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.31 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…d8c0backed Thunder | 53c | 556.17$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.71 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -7.4wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Thunder | 50c | 541.39$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.35 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1b…b9c4backed Thunder | 54c | 528$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.52 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Thunder | 68c | 463.03$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.96 | 218 | 48.2%105 W · 113 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…884abacked Lakers | 50c | 402.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.4 | 258 | 50%129 W · 129 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb416…4588backed Lakers | 48c | 373.81$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.78 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695d…60d5backed Lakers | 47c | 300.56$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.1 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +27%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Lakers | 48c | 250.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.42 | 219 | 50.2%110 W · 109 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb221…a639backed Lakers | 50c | 246.55$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.18 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Thunder | 50c | 223.2$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Lakers | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Thunder | 53c | 202$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.06 | 568 | 43.8%249 W · 319 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda4a…1c05backed Lakers | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Thunder | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.36 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…7db3backed Lakers | 48c | 182$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.64 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Thunder | 54c | 180.35$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.39 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…90c7backed Lakers | 49c | 151.08$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.25 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Thunder | 68c | 148.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.39 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…a1d0backed Lakers | 49c | 133.31$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.31 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Thunder | 54c | 107.26$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…28d2backed Lakers | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Lakers | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Thunder | 50c | 106.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e5…6fbebacked Lakers | 49c | 100.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Thunder | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 186 | 53.2%99 W · 87 L | +9.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…3e23backed Lakers | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Lakers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Lakers | 47c | 96.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda39…1865backed Thunder | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…7453backed Thunder | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba9…d704backed Thunder | 54c | 91.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Lakers | 45c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…b989backed Thunder | 52c | 72.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 492 | 44.3%218 W · 274 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e89…2fc6backed Thunder | 57c | 70.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Thunder | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…807ebacked Lakers | 48c | 69.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x713f…2d95backed Lakers | 47c | 63.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…9cfabacked Lakers | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Lakers | 43c | 55.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b48…8f19backed Lakers | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Lakers | 49c | 43.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1be0…dc27backed Lakers | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 158 | 53.8%85 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Thunder | 51c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 498 | 52.6%262 W · 236 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920e…7873backed Lakers | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Thunder | 55c | 35.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb700…5a62backed Thunder | 53c | 34.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 176 | 60.8%107 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…3b83backed Lakers | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…cefbbacked Lakers | 65c | 30.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Lakers | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -14.6wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Thunder | 50c | 29.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 99 | 41.4%41 W · 58 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Thunder | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Thunder | 55c | 22.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Lakers | 47c | 22.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…185fbacked Lakers | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Thunder | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b62…1253backed Thunder | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 207 | 56%116 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)this page
- Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Lakers won
- Thunder vs. LakersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 213.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 214.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 215.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.