NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7f6e63fb95bbafbd8edac3136a3614db1794548ccb141267dbba30a547e2f0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 42c | 3,556$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.55 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Over | 67c | 2,009$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.35 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Over | 49c | 1,995$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.99 | 931 | 48.4%451 W · 480 L | +34.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Over | 63c | 1,971$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.45 | 362 | 43.9%159 W · 203 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x901d…b6dbbacked Under | 49c | 1,021$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Over | 43c | 1,020$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.13 | 524 | 61.6%323 W · 201 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ea…b955backed Over | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 45c | 935.99$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.7 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Under | 25c | 839.7$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.77 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Under | 48c | 600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 27c | 440.43$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.39 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 75c | 438.16$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.94 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 72c | 265.63$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.64 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 50c | 249.98$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.99 | 312 | 22.1%69 W · 243 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…bcb2backed Under | 71c | 207.88$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.59 | 187 | 43.3%81 W · 106 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d03…100ebacked Under | 76c | 197.37$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Under | 53c | 173.84$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.44 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x53f1…35f8backed Over | 60c | 170$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 46c | 154.78$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…ca37backed Under | 80c | 133.66$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.85 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 64c | 122.88$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.61 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 64c | 110.92$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 202 | 47.5%96 W · 106 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Under | 46c | 108.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…5a9cbacked Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 75c | 91.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…f13cbacked Over | 20c | 81.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.31 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…5c31backed Under | 33c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…bec3backed Over | 46c | 65.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Under | 75c | 61.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Under | 55c | 55.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 156 | 62.8%98 W · 58 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7805…1baebacked Over | 55c | 52.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Over | 39c | 51.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7b…5092backed Over | 49c | 51.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 64c | 50.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Under | 46c | 50.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Under | 46c | 50.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 107 | 43.9%47 W · 60 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Under | 46c | 50.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Under | 46c | 50.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5038…99eebacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked Under | 46c | 49.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -6.6wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…f109backed Over | 74c | 43.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -14%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc097…4020backed Over | 35c | 42.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 27c | 42.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…0675backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Under | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -5.5wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…2147backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae37…90f2backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…307abacked Over | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 72c | 33.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa7…e3d9backed Over | 36c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 60c | 29.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 68c | 28.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 78c | 27.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 602 | 50.5%304 W · 298 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 45c | 24.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…e919backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…721dbacked Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 52c | 19.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 52c | 19.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 210 | 46.2%97 W · 113 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7349backed Over | 63c | 18.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 215 | 74.4%160 W · 55 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…c7acbacked Under | 79c | 16.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81d7…32d8backed Over | 77c | 16.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Lakers won
- Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Lakers won
- Thunder vs. LakersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 213.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 214.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 215.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.