NBA · resolved market
LeBron James: Points O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe06429ac426cb79834b3ff3382ae5a70879e380ee3fd8650b90cd5b9862ac8a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 41c | 1,346$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.89 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 39c | 507.29$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.13 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…9cfabacked Yes | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920e…7873backed Yes | 60c | 314.22$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.22 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 41c | 295$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefd1…c520backed Yes | 59c | 261.17$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.08 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e3…d1ffbacked Yes | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 40c | 179.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…672ebacked Yes | 60c | 173.07$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.59 | 137 | 59.9%82 W · 55 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fd…a91ebacked Yes | 60c | 167.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fab…00afbacked Yes | 59c | 148.08$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 39c | 138.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 45c | 111.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b48…8f19backed Yes | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 41c | 96.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b7…adb1backed Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc882…4e6bbacked Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41d5…686dbacked Yes | 60c | 80.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb2…4d80backed Yes | 57c | 74.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…77abbacked No | 40c | 74.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 41c | 68.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d91…5c20backed Yes | 56c | 58.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…40f7backed No | 44c | 58.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ae…7aa6backed Yes | 57c | 57.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Yes | 59c | 54.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 153 | 51%78 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e89…2fc6backed Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed No | 40c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 498 | 52.6%262 W · 236 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked No | 40c | 50.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…d4d7backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed No | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed No | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3893…8afbbacked No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +9.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes | 58c | 47.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 143 | 57.3%82 W · 61 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf89…0fb1backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f4…68a4backed Yes | 55c | 36.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1815…e217backed Yes | 59c | 35.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3b…531fbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed Yes | 54c | 34.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked No | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f7…9505backed Yes | 60c | 33.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…27f1backed Yes | 59c | 32.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x565c…f3c0backed Yes | 63c | 31.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf791…ae5bbacked Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -57%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…c5c6backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 42c | 29.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 267 | 55.1%147 W · 120 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2617…4129backed Yes | 61c | 28.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…02c8backed Yes | 59c | 25.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed No | 42c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 294 | 49.7%146 W · 148 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad3…e023backed Yes | 57c | 24.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 49c | 20.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe8…2baabacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1646…2f81backed Yes | 61c | 18.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 109 | 54.1%59 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LeBron James: Points O/U 21.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Lakers won
- Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Lakers won
- Thunder vs. LakersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 213.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 214.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 215.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.