Mls · resolved market
Will FC Dallas vs. San Diego FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8152d53200d41c00c2cf604f95b9775d29e0e87c247fb891dfe9afebf8ecb22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,978 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 4,745$3,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,605.32 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 25c | 2,118$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,588.17 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 25c | 1,283$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.34 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…afe9backed Yes | 27c | 1,111$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 26c | 986$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.89 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 903.22$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.41 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes | 24c | 841.92$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.92 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +45%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 79c | 746.6$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.14 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 57c | 742.36$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.26 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed No | 75c | 691$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.25 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Yes | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99a…388ebacked Yes | 24c | 500$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1e…5d9bbacked Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.33per pick | 45cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 75c | 439.93$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.23 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 24c | 426.57$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.43 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 78c | 408.72$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.98 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8577…199abacked Yes | 37c | 315.52$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 12c | 315.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.42 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 257.77$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.27 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 26c | 237.18$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 23c | 218.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.7 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…78debacked Yes | 62c | 215$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.77 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d12…a4c4backed Yes | 27c | 203.18$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.53 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +8.5wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…2777backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Yes | 65c | 185.01$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 49c | 110.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 25c | 104.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +12.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aee…bddfbacked Yes | 27c | 92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 28c | 87.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.58 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Yes | 24c | 80.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…cb95backed Yes | 38c | 80.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 27c | 64.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 75c | 59.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 19c | 57.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 80c | 53.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 24c | 53.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 26c | 48.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…d90ebacked No | 79c | 46.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 47c | 37.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 61c | 23.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 79c | 19.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…9f10backed No | 70c | 16.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 75c | 15.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Dallas vs. San Diego FC end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Dallas win on 2026-03-14?No won
- Will San Diego FC win on 2026-03-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.