Champions League · resolved market
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d9a8ab7e50862599f0e5d15b35292e46c5530a881a98c4f3885e9480a4fffbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d96…7c16backed No | 72c | 1,114$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.15 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d46…8ad1backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 71c | 343.74$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.63 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…2777backed Yes | 33c | 294.03$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.07 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Yes | 33c | 222.68$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.7 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked No | 67c | 206.81$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.38 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 67c | 204.9$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.99 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…77abbacked No | 68c | 199.78$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.85 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 28c | 157.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.65 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…5ec9backed Yes | 33c | 152.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.9 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed No | 66c | 148.51$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.02 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf1…d577backed Yes | 27c | 146.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.99 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 68c | 145.97$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5a…07b6backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 37cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71fd…1397backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf50…8752backed Yes | 32c | 84.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…aa7dbacked Yes | 27c | 73.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 34c | 73.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20a…d1fabacked Yes | 28c | 71.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 65c | 69.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb69c…2a0dbacked Yes | 27c | 62.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a98…3f93backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7517…e261backed Yes | 29c | 59.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…db2abacked Yes | 33c | 44.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…ae21backed No | 70c | 42.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 67c | 32.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked No | 71c | 25.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…d6a5backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecda…6f0abacked No | 70c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 63c | 20.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorerthis page
- Desire Doue: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
- Harry Kane: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
- Jamal Musiala: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
- Luis Diaz: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
- Ousmane Dembele: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
- Raphael Guerreiro: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.