Champions League · resolved market
Luis Diaz: Anytime Goalscorer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b78e7bf1cb16e0b3f8c9b60c78db8963e5e7069eaf9af8b1b18216c18226066
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d96…7c16backed No | 71c | 881.77$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.28 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…f75abacked Yes | 30c | 847.04$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.04 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 70c | 599.99$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.99 | 432 | 52.3%226 W · 206 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 61c | 415.06$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.03 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf1…d577backed Yes | 29c | 309.17$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.51 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…ff15backed No | 70c | 218.12$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…1080backed Yes | 30c | 167.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee1…fcf5backed Yes | 30c | 167.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 66c | 157.35$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.85 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 73c | 119.5$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.74 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 71c | 117$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Yes | 35c | 109.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.72 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…3f6abacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 125 | 46.4%58 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71fd…1397backed Yes | 29c | 84.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69c…2a0dbacked Yes | 29c | 67.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…6aafbacked Yes | 30c | 50.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecda…6f0abacked No | 69c | 43.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…7dcbbacked Yes | 34c | 42.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 34c | 31.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 141 | 45.4%64 W · 77 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked No | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…4f53backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 58c | 23.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…b2ebbacked Yes | 63c | 23.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Luis Diaz: Anytime Goalscorerthis page
- Desire Doue: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
- Harry Kane: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
- Jamal Musiala: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
- Michael Olise: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
- Ousmane Dembele: Anytime GoalscorerYes won
- Raphael Guerreiro: Anytime GoalscorerNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.