Serie A · resolved market
Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e0c3d92d88eb26033501695db68df3690df290d18cb9bd1b504c5000fa53cde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b75…433bbacked Over | 37c | 4,605$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 4,051$3,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.53 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 38c | 3,775$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.42 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 70c | 2,877$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.3 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 21c | 2,118$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.77 | 342 | 39.2%134 W · 208 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Under | 64c | 1,761$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.32 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 25c | 1,630$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.4 | 308 | 28.9%89 W · 219 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 12c | 1,533$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 1c | 1,452$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 66c | 818.13$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.63 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Over | 36c | 575.28$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.1 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Over | 37c | 556.82$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.02 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 28c | 514.29$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Under | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.87 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 66c | 450$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 328 | 54.3%178 W · 150 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…d7f5backed Over | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 68c | 384.61$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.7 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 38c | 299.25$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.72 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 28c | 280$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.85 | 225 | 45.3%102 W · 123 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 36c | 277.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 35c | 263.93$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.09 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Under | 69c | 240.64$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.37 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 26c | 227$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 62c | 193.36$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.78 | 233 | 45.1%105 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Under | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Under | 63c | 151.91$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Under | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 66c | 149.89$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 393 | 54.2%213 W · 180 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 70c | 133.51$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 397 | 40.6%161 W · 236 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 66c | 112.37$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Under | 78c | 109.54$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5087…2d85backed Over | 28c | 103.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 34c | 101.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 131 | 46.6%61 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 62c | 99.84$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 326 | 50.6%165 W · 161 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a98…3f93backed Over | 36c | 97.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 61c | 87.39$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…c154backed Under | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 71cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 66c | 75.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 64c | 71.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over | 34c | 57.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 65c | 52.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 65c | 52.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 29c | 52.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Under | 66c | 44.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 63cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6419…0f53backed Under | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd57d…590ebacked Under | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 35c | 37.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 159 | 46.5%74 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 66c | 37.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…f939backed Under | 72c | 36.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 69cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed Under | 80c | 31.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 75c | 31.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 113 | 60.2%68 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 77c | 28.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…2777backed Under | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…e4a2backed Under | 69c | 26.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 70c | 20.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 69c | 20.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 67c | 17.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…28b8backed Under | 71c | 15.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…29a4backed Under | 68c | 15.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +51%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5this page
- Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 0.5Over won
- Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5Under won
- Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5Under won
- Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5Under won
- Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-2.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)Atalanta BC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.