Serie A · resolved market
Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a09aacd53e45acc4140bb1eb42261cc717e9467fae99bfa83700ffa2fd32650
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 10c | 4,681$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 2,055$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.37 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed Over | 50c | 1,344$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.2 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +7.4wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 53c | 1,038$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.19 | 160 | 32.5%52 W · 108 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…88a4backed Over | 73c | 999$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.73 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked Over | 33c | 476.64$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 54c | 249.98$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.99 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3f…efffbacked Over | 68c | 215.3$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.3 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 51c | 197.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.13 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Over | 51c | 191.55$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.09 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8c…3d1abacked Under | 55c | 180$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 50c | 175.95$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.98 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 46c | 152.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fe16backed Under | 10c | 150.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 308 | 28.9%89 W · 219 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc582…853cbacked Under | 12c | 100.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +110%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 50c | 95.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +14.4wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…0df5backed Under | 54c | 65.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 42c | 60.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 397 | 40.6%161 W · 236 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…24f3backed Over | 65c | 46.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f7…91aabacked Over | 67c | 44.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…3c59backed Over | 56c | 42.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 52c | 36.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Over | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Under | 35c | 30.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 51c | 26.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over | 66c | 22.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 70cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 76c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 0.5this page
- Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5Under won
- Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5Under won
- Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5Under won
- Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5Under won
- Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-2.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)Atalanta BC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.