NBA · resolved market
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8448a6ebb822906b6c2ab121288711332c8b03a66292bb1cb757f6f949d092a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 51c | 582.09$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.22 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked No | 50c | 494.74$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1495…d3f9backed Yes | 49c | 285.71$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 49c | 255.64$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.15 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 49c | 244.84$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.78 | 538 | 42%226 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Yes | 50c | 243$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 256 | 57%146 W · 110 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked No | 50c | 221.52$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.76 | 249 | 49%122 W · 127 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…884abacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 258 | 50%129 W · 129 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed No | 51c | 199.96$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.98 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf137…50b2backed Yes | 50c | 196.52$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…57cfbacked Yes | 39c | 175.35$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked No | 52c | 153.3$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.3 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…2777backed Yes | 48c | 144.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5a…07b6backed Yes | 56c | 143.18$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 52c | 123.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 51c | 109.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.89 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c0…2713backed Yes | 48c | 105.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0e…bf72backed Yes | 49c | 102.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…bc09backed Yes | 49c | 100.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…9d8bbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 300 | 55.7%167 W · 133 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Yes | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed No | 51c | 97.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb613…7708backed Yes | 49c | 92.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0654…f5a9backed No | 52c | 79.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…7efbbacked Yes | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 587 | 54.7%321 W · 266 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 47c | 59.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…0073backed No | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 412 | 27.4%113 W · 299 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc70…7db5backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…c14abacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe221…0f5abacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce4b…3c4fbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcf…8907backed Yes | 49c | 37.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed No | 54c | 34.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 188 | 53.7%101 W · 87 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…4d66backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ef…e3c0backed No | 51c | 29.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 49c | 28.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 111 | 36%40 W · 71 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…0b63backed Yes | 46c | 27.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Yes | 48c | 25.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 199 | 59.3%118 W · 81 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 267 | 55.1%147 W · 120 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed No | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19a4…a65bbacked Yes | 43c | 23.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…792bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spurs vs. ThunderThunder won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: Odd/Even ScoreOdd won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.