NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fd961958307129c4f14caea55e11b3309213ad4b2e48f06a0220676baa1c49f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Thunder | 47c | 19,405$9,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,334.07 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf284…b9f9backed Spurs | 53c | 17,500$9,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,274.99 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Spurs | 55c | 10,000$5,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,500 | 280 | 56.8%159 W · 121 L | +22.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed Spurs | 21c | 5,070$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.67 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Thunder | 45c | 4,091$1,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,249.99 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Thunder | 45c | 3,175$1,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,746.27 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Spurs | 22c | 2,694$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.82 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Spurs | 55c | 1,734$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.56 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Thunder | 45c | 1,721$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.44 | 249 | 42.2%105 W · 144 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Spurs | 22c | 1,687$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.57 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Thunder | 42c | 838$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.25 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Spurs | 58c | 800$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Thunder | 47c | 386.1$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.62 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Spurs | 21c | 386$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.06 | 205 | 58.5%120 W · 85 L | +19.6wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Thunder | 56c | 328.42$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.14 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Spurs | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Thunder | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…ca29backed Spurs | 55c | 256$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…1816backed Spurs | 54c | 232.57$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.75 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Spurs | 54c | 144.4$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Spurs | 55c | 137.53$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.64 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…7453backed Thunder | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Spurs | 40c | 124.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 99 | 41.4%41 W · 58 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5e…0381backed Thunder | 72c | 121.78$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4efc…2d8dbacked Thunder | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba17…5c67backed Thunder | 47c | 95.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Thunder | 43c | 92.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Spurs | 55c | 90.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc4…0fd1backed Spurs | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Thunder | 42c | 84.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Thunder | 45c | 81.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Spurs | 23c | 69.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 428 | 42.5%182 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Thunder | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f3…d3e7backed Thunder | 53c | 57.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ab…8432backed Thunder | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Spurs | 37c | 51.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Thunder | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cad…341dbacked Spurs | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8051…2ab5backed Spurs | 59c | 47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ed…041bbacked Spurs | 30c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Spurs | 47c | 42.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 249 | 49%122 W · 127 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…2f8ebacked Spurs | 63c | 41.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Spurs | 50c | 39.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Thunder | 59c | 36.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…1d65backed Spurs | 55c | 35.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Spurs | 55c | 35.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 49cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Thunder | 42c | 34.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x970f…f167backed Spurs | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Thunder | 46c | 32.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Spurs | 56c | 32.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Thunder | 52c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 253 | 52.6%133 W · 120 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd2…6555backed Spurs | 58c | 31.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd021…12b5backed Spurs | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8128…9329backed Spurs | 52c | 28.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Thunder | 45c | 27.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 137 | 47.4%65 W · 72 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…9831backed Spurs | 56c | 26.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabd8…a981backed Thunder | 45c | 23.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139f…bb2fbacked Thunder | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…a569backed Spurs | 55c | 20.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Thunder won
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spurs vs. ThunderThunder won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: Odd/Even ScoreOdd won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.