NBA · resolved market
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf8b215564eca6558d14c92c4df7b1d005356fe8156530110ba7f3d9b4353b91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x880b…c98bbacked Yes | 63c | 961$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.6 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Yes | 55c | 907.97$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.58 | 235 | 53.6%126 W · 109 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…920fbacked Yes | 65c | 773.58$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.58 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…1ae6backed Yes | 56c | 586.18$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.03 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c06…aa42backed No | 45c | 507.72$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 34c | 507.54$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.56 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed No | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 96 | 28.1%27 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 4c | 389.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 878 | 3%26 W · 852 L | -22.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 61c | 375.76$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.76 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 47c | 369.98$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.99 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Yes | 62c | 337.35$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.35 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce0f…07a3backed No | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2659…a631backed No | 45c | 218.56$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked No | 46c | 217.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked No | 38c | 202.84$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.45 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Yes | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 400 | 53.5%214 W · 186 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…e2eebacked No | 45c | 166.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…2ad5backed No | 45c | 138.33$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked No | 43c | 138.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 293 | 46.4%136 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf137…50b2backed Yes | 60c | 125.67$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 40c | 117.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c0…2713backed No | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 38c | 109.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…add4backed No | 48c | 104.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4c…67e4backed No | 43c | 93.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 37c | 84.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Yes | 55c | 69.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 153 | 51%78 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938a…e0edbacked Yes | 53c | 65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c9…bc74backed No | 43c | 58.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 346 | 61.6%213 W · 133 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…c0e6backed Yes | 59c | 51.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 412 | 27.4%113 W · 299 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…7275backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8106…bd36backed No | 42c | 47.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed No | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72d…e6fabacked Yes | 54c | 44.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6caebacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 36c | 36.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62f6…ef41backed Yes | 59c | 33.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed No | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 55c | 32.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…3c26backed No | 44c | 24.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a12…b81bbacked Yes | 67c | 22.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeece…8a27backed No | 56c | 22.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed Yes | 59c | 17.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spurs vs. ThunderThunder won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: Odd/Even ScoreOdd won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.