NBA · resolved market
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72f70e3096b3e4522057c93381df1b65f8f033cb0d48f1968aa1ef6925b6c2c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 49c | 1,568$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.8 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 49c | 911.51$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.87 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked No | 50c | 779.2$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.6 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…920fbacked Yes | 51c | 687.25$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 51c | 618.5$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.55 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed No | 52c | 618.29$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.07 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Yes | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 96 | 28.1%27 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 50c | 444$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…9cfbbacked Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Yes | 51c | 294.27$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked No | 49c | 261.96$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.6 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 48c | 250.21$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.03 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 48c | 249.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd021…12b5backed No | 49c | 203.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.71 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcf…dc6ebacked Yes | 50c | 198$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9af…4884backed Yes | 51c | 197.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…588cbacked No | 50c | 184$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 50c | 132$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 361 | 53.5%193 W · 168 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 53c | 120.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 50c | 118.27$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 412 | 27.4%113 W · 299 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc9…ac05backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Yes | 51c | 98.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…add4backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f3…d3e7backed Yes | 52c | 86.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 50c | 84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497c…a9bbbacked Yes | 51c | 76.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked No | 51c | 75.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 39c | 73.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x424c…82b5backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d970backed Yes | 50c | 56.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…5c76backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -9.1wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5a…07b6backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…c0e6backed Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x630b…34ffbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes | 49c | 39.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31a…28f5backed Yes | 50c | 37.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 51c | 37.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 111 | 36%40 W · 71 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…57cfbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf5…e7c3backed No | 52c | 29.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aeb…42d4backed Yes | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 53c | 25.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3596…a7cebacked No | 51c | 23.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9e…5347backed No | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked No | 49c | 22.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…0be2backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x621a…3e19backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c0…2713backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spurs vs. ThunderThunder won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: Odd/Even ScoreOdd won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.