TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Thunder (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Spurs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$56,682
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$56,683

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,682 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf284…b9f9backed Spurs49c53,667$26,540 inLost-$26,540.4318651.1%95 W · 91 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Thunder50c35,184$17,677 inWon+$17,506.471471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+46.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Thunder51c19,564$9,978 inWon+$9,586.311,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Spurs50c1,400$694 inLost-$6941,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95a3…cc1bbacked Thunder51c588.24$300 inWon+$288.24728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Spurs50c440$220 inLost-$22012146.3%56 W · 65 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed Thunder51c387.35$198 inWon+$189.837652.4%197 W · 179 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3839…e2eebacked Spurs54c233$125 inLost-$1255455.6%30 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder46c227.67$105 inWon+$122.946,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Spurs51c200$101 inLost-$101.419959.3%118 W · 81 L+22.0wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+27.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x52f8…ad19backed Thunder51c196.24$100 inWon+$96.2413342.9%57 W · 76 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Spurs52c193$100 inLost-$100.365549.1%27 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba17…5c67backed Thunder51c95.78$49 inWon+$46.932839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xca29…a1d0backed Spurs53c75.47$40 inLost-$4010752.3%56 W · 51 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Thunder47c75.47$35 inWon+$401,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Spurs54c74.11$40 inLost-$4015846.8%74 W · 84 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Spurs49c48.84$24 inLost-$23.931,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca28…49debacked Thunder50c45.33$23 inWon+$22.672850%14 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Spurs50c40.13$20 inLost-$20.071,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Thunder47c25$12 inWon+$13.2533356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d2a…9ee3backed Spurs51c20$10 inLost-$10.285248.9%417 W · 435 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.