TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,375
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,392

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,375 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x880b…c98bbacked Yes43c796.67$342 inLost-$341.852937.9%11 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-28%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No57c673.34$387 inWon+$286.8433049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No59c149.63$88 inWon+$61.585449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed No56c125$70 inWon+$55.2519959.3%118 W · 81 L+22.0wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+27.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No54c99.98$54 inWon+$45.5943752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ae5…8386backed Yes41c96.58$40 inLost-$39.62161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+33.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb9fc…c14abacked Yes42c52.38$22 inLost-$222552%13 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07fe…4d66backed Yes43c46.51$20 inLost-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-44.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa06e…57cfbacked Yes46c43.48$20 inLost-$2050%0 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes40c39.36$16 inLost-$15.7456050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed No60c33.43$20 inWon+$13.4366046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Yes41c30$12 inLost-$12.341227.4%113 W · 299 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No60c29.81$18 inWon+$12.0333356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes43c29.07$12 inLost-$12.466150.8%31 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No63c25.3$16 inWon+$9.4219555.4%108 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6472…81e3backed No59c17$10 inWon+$6.9716647%78 W · 88 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.