TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,036
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,113

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,036 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb581…0308backed Yes48c269.98$130 inWon+$140.3956050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No51c146.53$74 inLost-$74.0485449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6808…899bbacked No52c115.38$60 inLost-$605451.9%28 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb502…9d8bbacked Yes50c100$50 inWon+$5030055.7%167 W · 133 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e79…10c0backed No52c93.08$48 inLost-$48.42378.3%18 W · 5 L+5.0wins+0.22per pick57cpaid+38.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No49c90.66$45 inLost-$44.5253842%226 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No48c87.73$42 inLost-$42.2343752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79cf…91abbacked Yes47c52.81$25 inWon+$27.81366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+44.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x330b…6e60backed Yes52c48.08$25 inWon+$23.085337.7%20 W · 33 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc1…b85fbacked Yes49c41.12$20 inWon+$21.121435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed No52c38.46$20 inLost-$2066046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No53c38.37$20 inLost-$20.3433356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8106…bd36backed Yes53c37.74$20 inWon+$17.742352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x085b…ab9fbacked Yes42c34.13$14 inWon+$19.79941.4%41 W · 58 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No50c28$14 inLost-$1433049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No58c24.13$14 inLost-$1419555.4%108 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8b…9cd7backed No53c24.12$13 inLost-$12.781330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-44.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked No52c21.14$11 inLost-$11.0526957.2%154 W · 115 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7840…51b5backed No52c20.68$11 inLost-$10.77862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked Yes50c20$10 inWon+$1037848.9%185 W · 193 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.