TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Spurs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$430,650
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$436,018

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $430,650 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 225 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9495…9a27backed Thunder48c131,680$63,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,498.769848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Spurs52c94,159$48,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,861.464948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Spurs52c93,742$48,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,757.5626753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Thunder48c54,975$26,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,586.7516846.4%78 W · 90 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Thunder47c43,292$20,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,944.8128241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6211…b89ebacked Thunder47c43,055$20,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,819.178148.1%39 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Spurs53c34,344$18,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,202.327650%38 W · 38 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Thunder47c17,339$8,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,189.841,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92b5…fec6backed Spurs53c17,312$9,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,175.5810747.7%51 W · 56 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Thunder48c15,555$7,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,088.5614538.6%56 W · 89 L-12.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Spurs53c14,277$7,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,544.964,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38ac…3504backed Spurs51c8,823$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,499.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Spurs51c8,567$4,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,348.91,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9db3…0d97backed Thunder48c8,333$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,333.331145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc87c…afd7backed Spurs51c8,038$4,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,099.42560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf595…bfb5backed Spurs51c7,000$3,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,579.993743.2%16 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Spurs52c6,641$3,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,449.4625352.6%133 W · 120 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83d4…ad01backed Thunder48c6,215$2,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,232.749558.9%56 W · 39 L+13.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+27.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Thunder46c6,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,250.4255251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Spurs53c4,842$2,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,566.2963746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Spurs53c4,839$2,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,564.790650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Spurs53c4,717$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5009725.8%25 W · 72 L-9.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-34.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Spurs53c3,999$2,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,119.235032%16 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Thunder48c3,888$1,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,021.7629748.1%143 W · 154 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Thunder48c3,570$1,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,854.851,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Spurs53c3,400$1,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80264651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed Spurs53c3,100$1,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6432653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e86…cb8fbacked Spurs53c3,037$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.581747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Thunder48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,56056453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c85…94a4backed Thunder47c2,979$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,578.723345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f5…c161backed Spurs52c2,860$1,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,477.0611440.4%46 W · 68 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2579…9d48backed Spurs51c2,729$1,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,39219359.6%115 W · 78 L+14.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf984…24cebacked Thunder48c2,617$1,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.612356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+101.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xce0d…ca2cbacked Thunder49c2,245$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,144.93030%9 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Thunder48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0407143.7%31 W · 40 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-19.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4946…4004backed Thunder48c1,979$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.1721957.1%125 W · 94 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7ee…fe5dbacked Spurs52c1,923$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011759.8%70 W · 47 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Spurs53c1,923$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.6884443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7aa9…a11bbacked Spurs53c1,887$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+102.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8180…f4dabacked Spurs53c1,849$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.2143352.2%226 W · 207 L+19.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x689a…3007backed Spurs53c1,809$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Spurs57c1,776$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.571,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Thunder48c1,741$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.611,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ac6…a8cebacked Spurs52c1,704$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.231338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Spurs53c1,700$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9012,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Spurs30c1,663$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.048,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Spurs33c1,408$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.491,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Thunder47c1,358$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.231,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Thunder48c1,202$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.965649.2%323 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f9…ad24backed Spurs52c1,194$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.114452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x433c…81eabacked Thunder48c1,131$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.121361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+25.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Spurs30c1,090$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.353842%226 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Spurs52c1,080$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.721843.6%95 W · 123 L-15.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf2c7…2e93backed Spurs51c1,078$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55021152.6%111 W · 100 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Thunder65c1,071$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.2252461.6%323 W · 201 L-0.3wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb416…4588backed Thunder48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.671643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e9c…1fcabacked Thunder48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.671952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+32.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cc…0b39backed Thunder47c999.98$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.993953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Spurs53c961.54$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.623935.9%14 W · 25 L-4.4wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd13…5228backed Spurs52c961.54$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-48.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6859…fb90backed Spurs53c932.09$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.016053.3%32 W · 28 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4951…3038backed Thunder48c920.83$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.833652.8%19 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde1c…fd28backed Spurs53c742.21$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.37560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Spurs17c735.84$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.792,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Spurs51c699.96$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.8412146.3%56 W · 65 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Spurs52c693$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.361,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Thunder48c677.04$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.064445.5%20 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15fc…e2b0backed Spurs53c660.38$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3502245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Spurs11c644.96$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.213,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4f9…9419backed Spurs53c600$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3186341.3%26 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Spurs50c597.31$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.4865045.1%293 W · 357 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…0b46backed Spurs53c566.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008149.4%40 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24d4…4e1dbacked Spurs53c566.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008450%42 W · 42 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a47…3b21backed Thunder48c531$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.123562.9%22 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+19%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Thunder41c500$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2952,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6303…9556backed Thunder62c481.58$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18318853.2%100 W · 88 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f5e…6dd8backed Thunder39c477.26$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.133321.2%7 W · 26 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-21.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Spurs53c471.7$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25065339.5%258 W · 395 L-24.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6faf…de48backed Spurs53c471.7$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Spurs54c457.56$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.0821950.2%110 W · 109 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Thunder49c448.9$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.3139552.2%206 W · 189 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Thunder48c447$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.3934850.9%177 W · 171 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Thunder46c432.99$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.8162744.5%279 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Spurs53c429.17$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.312055.8%67 W · 53 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x927a…f706backed Spurs46c426.57$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19624139%94 W · 147 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05d5…8863backed Spurs26c421$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.74616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick39cpaid-63%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd420…df90backed Spurs52c417$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.8451451.9%267 W · 247 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62be…444cbacked Thunder48c412.5$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.51861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+30.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Thunder48c400.78$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.11,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Thunder50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20036450.8%185 W · 179 L-1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc7e…eb2cbacked Spurs53c386.98$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.1425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Spurs53c377.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20038432.6%125 W · 259 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Spurs53c377.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20053539.6%212 W · 323 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81f3…1f2abacked Spurs53c373.58$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1984540%18 W · 27 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-22.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf6e1…06bbbacked Spurs54c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20013757.7%79 W · 58 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3b2…ae24backed Thunder50c330$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.92441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x88ba…b99abacked Thunder47c319.15$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.1510050%50 W · 50 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Thunder48c300$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1562846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Thunder48c300$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15629346.4%136 W · 157 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed Thunder48c300$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1563148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.