NBA · resolved market
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17e4cd813f9276ec1805465dc2db1d183c0f8b9870c92e088d425b6bc1ae30ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Yes | 55c | 2,330$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.48 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 45c | 1,507$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.13 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…a64abacked No | 45c | 777.78$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 187 | 48.1%90 W · 97 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked No | 4c | 616.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Yes | 56c | 554.34$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.36 | 256 | 57%146 W · 110 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked No | 43c | 500.44$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.19 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed No | 43c | 457.98$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.93 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked No | 44c | 416.99$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.48 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x804f…13abbacked Yes | 57c | 370$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.1 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac2a…4543backed Yes | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked No | 43c | 332.99$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.19 | 249 | 49%122 W · 127 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…2391backed No | 45c | 328$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.6 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 43c | 299.97$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked No | 45c | 232.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.85 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…c940backed Yes | 56c | 200$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed No | 44c | 199.17$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.11 | 199 | 59.3%118 W · 81 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…884abacked Yes | 55c | 180.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.77 | 258 | 50%129 W · 129 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0a…e172backed Yes | 56c | 176.11$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed Yes | 57c | 142.81$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.41 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 55c | 135.2$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.84 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 24c | 126.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 538 | 42%226 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 18c | 125.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56e…a853backed Yes | 78c | 121.26$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 43 | 93%40 W · 3 L | +12.5wins | +0.29per pick | 64cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed No | 45c | 111.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…b8dbbacked Yes | 56c | 110$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 43c | 104.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b382backed No | 43c | 104$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 209 | 51.7%108 W · 101 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e40…1945backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 45c | 94.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 361 | 53.5%193 W · 168 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…10c0backed Yes | 55c | 89.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0654…f5a9backed Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 17c | 77.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424c…82b5backed No | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c43…31c1backed Yes | 57c | 73.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 120 | 44.2%53 W · 67 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 43c | 71.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…792bbacked Yes | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…c160backed Yes | 57c | 70.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dee…1415backed Yes | 57c | 70.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…0073backed No | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc067…e97cbacked Yes | 56c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Yes | 57c | 65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 267 | 55.1%147 W · 120 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 47c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9abc…636abacked Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc70…7db5backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes | 57c | 47.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b06…99c9backed Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed No | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…e166backed Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 187 | 57.2%107 W · 80 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a1…7c9dbacked Yes | 55c | 39.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 137 | 64.2%88 W · 49 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…3393backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…c0b8backed Yes | 57c | 34.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…7531backed Yes | 57c | 34.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked No | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 400 | 48.3%193 W · 207 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6472…81e3backed Yes | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…ad06backed No | 45c | 25.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 294 | 49.7%146 W · 148 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdd…6da4backed Yes | 56c | 21.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe221…0f5abacked Yes | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-2.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spurs vs. ThunderThunder won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 111.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Over won
- Spurs vs. Thunder: Odd/Even ScoreOdd won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.