TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$218,769
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$235,951

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $218,769 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Yes26c97,216$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,0003636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed No74c50,341$37,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,088.545945.8%27 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked No75c20,000$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0003250%16 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked No76c16,000$12,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8402951.7%15 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+26.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec7e…5fddbacked No75c11,600$8,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,900333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No50c11,293$5,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,655.572,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No52c9,519$4,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,526.1575142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No74c5,982$4,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,558.261,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Yes50c5,530$2,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,758.3548141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee19…555ebacked Yes25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005541.8%23 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x702b…dedebacked Yes25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002142.9%9 W · 12 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+68.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd44f…6225backed Yes25c3,956$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No74c3,862$2,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.6469851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76bc…db0abacked Yes25c3,092$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe427…c02bbacked Yes25c3,044$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7611127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Yes25c2,937$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.257443.2%32 W · 42 L-9.2wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-21.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x649a…02afbacked Yes75c2,336$1,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,744.974785.1%40 W · 7 L+5.6wins+0.12per pick73cpaid+16.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Yes36c2,096$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.24933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d0c…bcebbacked Yes24c1,510$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.585440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0980…bdaabacked Yes25c1,464$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed No75c1,334$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.515747.1%74 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed No76c1,264$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.355168.6%35 W · 16 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No54c1,142$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.16035%21 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Yes24c1,100$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.8822047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed No75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0040…9eb8backed No41c970$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.2522562.2%140 W · 85 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x287a…02d2backed No73c834.81$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.42369.6%16 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick74cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda23…1d83backed No63c820.21$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7106…1caabacked Yes31c806.71$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2504030%12 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-35.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6e8…7c26backed Yes77c649.89$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes39c595.9$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.9778248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Yes34c588.24$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006129.5%18 W · 43 L-7.1wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed No58c562.95$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.8811356.6%64 W · 49 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xadb9…ef55backed No58c560.5$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.984163.4%26 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89dc…8f42backed Yes25c529.73$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.433641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No57c519.91$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.871,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed No45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27512952.7%68 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa0f…574cbacked No62c489.8$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.413751.4%19 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes24c465.84$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.81,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fcd…445ebacked Yes18c450$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812429.2%7 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick14cpaid+140.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes56c446.43$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25038055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed No50c424.43$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.826860.3%41 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes69c373.81$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.0949647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33d8…ad50backed Yes24c350$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8430%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes77c349$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.571735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.23per pick58cpaid-44.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No76c348.5$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.762452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bf4…3d38backed Yes34c337.12$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed Yes24c329.83$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.163036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked No76c328.95$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.953246.9%15 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes67c316.99$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.148146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a39…1a00backed Yes6c304.17$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Yes36c277.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017549.1%86 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a2f…c5d0backed No58c258.62$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.622050%10 W · 10 L-4.7wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-31.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xafc4…daa1backed Yes17c252$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.723627.8%10 W · 26 L+5.0wins+0.14per pick14cpaid+88.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb1cc…1958backed No59c250.19$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.781764.7%11 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes25c250$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.56543.1%28 W · 37 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9a8…a3d3backed No76c249.57$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Yes52c240.05$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.737349.3%36 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8544…3d33backed Yes72c234.6$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1681861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…860fbacked No56c223.21$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.211844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Yes69c218.97$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.3563645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes53c214.01$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.263,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x447d…bd4abacked No48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.333234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed No76c207.56$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.819746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8c7…3726backed Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504535.6%16 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc85f…15f8backed Yes46c199.45$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.453873.7%28 W · 10 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick60cpaid+30%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Yes52c189.12$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.278547.1%40 W · 45 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0e4a…fcd8backed No53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.683562.9%22 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+20.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9386…b2b7backed Yes27c182.54$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfb3…f4f6backed Yes29c176.58$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f01…4ca2backed Yes69c166.78$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.44837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick61cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe33d…9512backed Yes38c165.45$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.813330.3%10 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfeb7…a4b4backed Yes25c161.6$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed No51c157.28$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.7417749.7%88 W · 89 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x57f7…ae57backed Yes18c156.49$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.17714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed No51c153.94$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.585556.4%31 W · 24 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85e8…474abacked No77c153.45$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.29837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No66c151.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5476234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Yes24c150$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3633047.3%156 W · 174 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed No74c150$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399850%49 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ce0…6599backed Yes18c150$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271520%3 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+57.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05f8…d87fbacked No15c149.04$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.058100%8 W · 0 L+4.3wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+228.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x6741…b3bcbacked No69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Yes52c140.55$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.0320548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes25c140$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3511250.9%57 W · 55 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Yes77c138.97$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.366030%18 W · 42 L-6.6wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5465…ba43backed No76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.584062.5%25 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick70cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes39c128.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506940.6%28 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9269…5eb8backed Yes24c125$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick35cpaid-67.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed No21c123.6$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.2628822.6%65 W · 223 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84e1…61d0backed Yes37c122.22$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f2d…318bbacked Yes18c122$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.52254%1 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-81.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dcc…c9a8backed No76c121.7$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.21771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick77cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No54c119.53$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.0939857.5%229 W · 169 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xffff…4413backed No48c110.47$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.2512141.3%50 W · 71 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9401…38cbbacked No76c101.79$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.43837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc58a…b8f8backed No74c100.55$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.142751.9%14 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39fd…849ebacked Yes24c100.44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.041040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid+7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5104…a114backed Yes46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-55.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255076%38 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.