Premier League · resolved market
Manchester City FC leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf34b2751b94c2af7b40b1f08de47c64611155820de85e8fc23dde29adb861ea0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 43c | 4,667$1,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,680.17 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…ce9bbacked Yes | 56c | 3,611$2,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,017 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 54c | 2,488$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.12 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd119…28abbacked Yes | 60c | 1,568$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac20…a68abacked Yes | 56c | 1,251$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b4…1483backed Yes | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 44c | 875.79$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.96 | 210 | 56.7%119 W · 91 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed No | 44c | 831.24$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.59 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 44c | 784$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.03 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x361f…5edabacked Yes | 50c | 751.65$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.65 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf439…bf9cbacked Yes | 36c | 700$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.52 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71da…bc9ebacked Yes | 55c | 548.75$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…d723backed Yes | 54c | 535.62$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.59 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -7.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 44c | 483.63$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.8 | 183 | 52.5%96 W · 87 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…0412backed Yes | 55c | 379.32$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.63 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed No | 64c | 376$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.36 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f67…a1d7backed Yes | 60c | 334.08$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 44c | 331$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.21 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 44c | 321.37$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.46 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed No | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 45c | 299.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9da7…8bb1backed Yes | 57c | 264$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 226 | 44.2%100 W · 126 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Yes | 55c | 178.51$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 44c | 177.43$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.45 | 413 | 43.3%179 W · 234 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d2…2be9backed Yes | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23f…6c8abacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92a…7d0dbacked Yes | 79c | 88.85$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa875…9f99backed Yes | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.34per pick | 56cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Yes | 52c | 63.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 46c | 63.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 419 | 56.3%236 W · 183 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed No | 45c | 61.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 45cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 55c | 58.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 126 | 50%63 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Yes | 54c | 55.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…4ff3backed Yes | 54c | 54.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…bae5backed Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed No | 46c | 52.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…844fbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +27%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc4…0fd1backed Yes | 59c | 45.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…9d8bbacked Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63aa…8b6fbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…2777backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +9.2wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e9…736dbacked Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Yes | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 142 | 58.5%83 W · 59 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester City FC leading at halftime?this page
- Brentford FC leading at halftime?No won
- Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: Draw at halftime?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.