TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Morocco (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Scotlandof Morocco, Scotland
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,775,480
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,782,051

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,775,480 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 847 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9d36…0e68backed Scotland69c652,697$450,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202,335.931225%3 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-56.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Morocco47c251,313$118,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118,163.382,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Scotland58c237,489$138,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98,908.874,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Morocco31c200,000$62,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,00021343.2%92 W · 121 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x709e…66f5backed Morocco31c153,971$47,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,731.0111642.2%49 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Scotland69c147,521$101,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,731.4374752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Scotland58c135,727$78,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,928.4277152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Morocco31c100,000$31,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,0002,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Morocco31c92,539$28,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,687.1342345.6%193 W · 230 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Morocco31c81,731$25,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,336.619345.2%42 W · 51 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4fd…748bbacked Morocco32c67,028$21,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,193.8914727.2%40 W · 107 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac47…d234backed Morocco30c28,212$8,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,424.7221029%61 W · 149 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Scotland67c22,922$15,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,608.523,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Morocco32c21,007$6,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,769.562,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10a6…4d8bbacked Scotland50c20,047$10,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,023.4364446.4%299 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Morocco41c19,999$8,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,199.5918740.6%76 W · 111 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Morocco31c18,000$5,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5802,17138.2%829 W · 1,342 L-36.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked Morocco39c16,906$6,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,593.342441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Morocco31c15,453$4,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,790.357744.2%34 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Scotland65c15,165$9,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,364.692,81944.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L-36.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a2…353abacked Morocco30c13,903$4,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,170.784841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Morocco31c11,389$3,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,571.928,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37ae…1002backed Morocco31c11,177$3,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,46524917.7%44 W · 205 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Morocco32c10,025$3,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,164.651,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa80e…6aa1backed Morocco31c9,999$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,099.6927345.8%125 W · 148 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Scotland68c8,000$5,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,559.9912536.8%46 W · 79 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa698…db5ebacked Morocco30c6,618$1,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,985.327962%49 W · 30 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+13.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6094…d510backed Morocco31c6,452$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0009045.6%41 W · 49 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb895…e4afbacked Morocco31c6,000$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8601225%3 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa18c…d792backed Morocco40c6,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.824058.8%141 W · 99 L+19.8wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x55a1…db28backed Morocco42c5,564$2,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,331.232748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Scotland50c5,555$2,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,777.532029.4%94 W · 226 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Scotland68c5,468$3,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,751.381,56043.8%684 W · 876 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8325…19ccbacked Morocco40c5,273$2,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,083.4566846.7%312 W · 356 L+45.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd9ff…79dcbacked Morocco39c5,190$2,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,02713843.5%60 W · 78 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed Morocco31c5,123$1,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,588.1121937%81 W · 138 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Scotland69c5,052$3,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,578.172,80555.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L+70.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Morocco31c5,000$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,55025019.6%49 W · 201 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf892…7f58backed Morocco43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1502420.8%5 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-55.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc229…1b74backed Morocco30c5,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5008858%51 W · 37 L+10.4wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+27.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd0e1…99dbbacked Morocco42c4,934$2,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,072.4358049.1%285 W · 295 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b89…4244backed Morocco16c4,900$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79417550.3%88 W · 87 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Morocco31c4,839$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50067447.6%321 W · 353 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Morocco31c4,772$1,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.3229740.1%119 W · 178 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Scotland68c4,662$3,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,491.7429646.3%137 W · 159 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Morocco45c4,638$2,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,072.721,62732.1%523 W · 1,104 L+4.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Scotland65c4,493$2,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,569.181,94135.5%690 W · 1,251 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Scotland68c4,243$2,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,375.348441.9%203 W · 281 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x361b…74febacked Morocco31c4,218$1,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,307.4751032.5%166 W · 344 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Morocco51c4,084$2,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,064.062,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd34a…78c7backed Morocco32c4,063$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30013721.2%29 W · 108 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf83…3385backed Scotland55c4,040$2,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,825.8131545.4%143 W · 172 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x208c…6b98backed Morocco50c4,029$2,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,014.39846.9%46 W · 52 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2613…12bdbacked Morocco31c3,911$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20014035.7%50 W · 90 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddf1…a604backed Scotland53c3,764$2,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,754.926459.5%157 W · 107 L+18.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Scotland54c3,483$1,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,605.661,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2837…e56fbacked Morocco49c3,475$1,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,708.251250%6 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Morocco31c3,391$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.355729.8%17 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ea8…9469backed Morocco30c3,333$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008353%44 W · 39 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Scotland80c3,250$2,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65975335.6%268 W · 485 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d06…f79dbacked Morocco31c3,232$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.0612536.8%46 W · 79 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Scotland69c3,183$2,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.6328162.6%176 W · 105 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Morocco32c3,157$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.1358029.5%171 W · 409 L-19.9wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda2b…85febacked Morocco32c3,125$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006516.9%11 W · 54 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-49.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe275…f1eebacked Morocco29c3,103$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9004032.5%13 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed Morocco31c3,000$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93022229.7%66 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Scotland68c3,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96047144.8%211 W · 260 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Scotland68c3,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96047643.3%206 W · 270 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93f6…4814backed Morocco41c3,000$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.31per pick43cpaid-69.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ede…4284backed Morocco31c3,000$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.9618738%71 W · 116 L+0.6wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cfe…c83cbacked Scotland63c2,971$1,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.2936234%123 W · 239 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…e7a9backed Scotland68c2,800$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90044144%194 W · 247 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf57e…bbd6backed Morocco36c2,780$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007349.3%36 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf531…121cbacked Morocco32c2,750$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88017944.1%79 W · 100 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23b0…13a3backed Morocco28c2,659$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.4915128.5%43 W · 108 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54c4…caaebacked Morocco31c2,581$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8007859%46 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+27.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked Morocco43c2,558$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1003842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Scotland52c2,555$1,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.443,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Scotland70c2,473$1,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.881,06749.1%524 W · 543 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Scotland71c2,464$1,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.561,04443.7%456 W · 588 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc66a…ed6abacked Morocco41c2,439$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.8941968.3%286 W · 133 L+65.4wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+43.6%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xf021…e900backed Morocco30c2,366$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.3936437.1%135 W · 229 L+16.5wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb399…9435backed Morocco47c2,273$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.4628042.1%118 W · 162 L-16.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Scotland72c2,228$1,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.231,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Scotland58c2,198$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.1612036.7%44 W · 76 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-15.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x203d…2b2cbacked Morocco50c2,175$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.566526.2%17 W · 48 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-34.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0852…655cbacked Morocco34c2,134$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.453629.9%160 W · 376 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x911b…344fbacked Morocco31c2,089$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.7111346%52 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2735…42ebbacked Scotland77c2,047$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.577865.4%51 W · 27 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fb9…8429backed Scotland61c2,035$1,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.976241.9%26 W · 36 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe65e…b719backed Morocco45c2,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90017040%68 W · 102 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Morocco32c2,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64023729.1%69 W · 168 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Scotland50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00035446%163 W · 191 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e39…352cbacked Scotland71c2,000$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58064443.3%279 W · 365 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dbd…8990backed Scotland71c2,000$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5903740.5%15 W · 22 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-34.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Scotland70c2,000$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.9826940.9%110 W · 159 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fd8…7749backed Scotland51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.7816041.3%66 W · 94 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb72b…989abacked Morocco51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010456.7%59 W · 45 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4520…9182backed Morocco51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00015146.4%70 W · 81 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1ff…01d0backed Morocco32c1,900$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6069139.6%36 W · 55 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 36 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.