TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Pistons (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pistonsof Pistons, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,172
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,405

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,172 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb895…e4afbacked Pistons47c2,000$930 inWon+$1,0704445.5%20 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Pistons46c1,875$863 inWon+$1,012.750346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca28…49debacked Magic54c1,816$979 inLost-$979.282850%14 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Pistons47c1,617$766 inWon+$850.8517047.6%81 W · 89 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Magic53c1,306$689 inLost-$689.321,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4946…4004backed Magic53c1,047$555 inLost-$55521957.1%125 W · 94 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Magic54c932.65$504 inLost-$503.631,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ff…9953backed Magic52c617.02$321 inLost-$320.8511864.4%76 W · 42 L+15.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+25.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Magic53c523.68$277 inLost-$277.512451.6%64 W · 60 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Pistons47c298$140 inWon+$157.941,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Pistons47c279.68$131 inWon+$148.2369848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Pistons48c187.5$90 inWon+$97.536248.1%174 W · 188 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x128f…db9dbacked Magic54c185.37$100 inLost-$10020651.5%106 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x050d…d5b0backed Pistons48c103.13$50 inWon+$53.637550.7%38 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Pistons48c100$48 inWon+$52.262047.3%293 W · 327 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Pistons48c100$48 inWon+$5236749.6%182 W · 185 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52f8…ad19backed Magic52c96.35$50 inLost-$5013342.9%57 W · 76 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Magic51c59.53$30 inLost-$30.363,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Pistons47c52.36$25 inWon+$27.61,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84bb…25d3backed Pistons49c51.09$25 inWon+$26.052737%10 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed Magic73c50$37 inLost-$36.511852.5%62 W · 56 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Pistons27c50$14 inWon+$36.552230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5345…666abacked Magic54c45.74$25 inLost-$24.646942%29 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd22f…d0eebacked Magic52c38.65$20 inLost-$2040853.7%219 W · 189 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf39d…a5e9backed Magic54c27.78$15 inLost-$158453.6%45 W · 39 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93dc…3728backed Pistons45c26.86$12 inWon+$14.867444.6%33 W · 41 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.