TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 199.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,201
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,127

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,201 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1de1…8f45backed Over66c619.99$409 inWon+$210.81353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under45c576$262 inLost-$261.672,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under44c338.27$148 inLost-$148.392,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Over50c297.57$150 inWon+$147.5728838.2%110 W · 178 L-17.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Over39c255.77$100 inWon+$156.0446959.1%277 W · 192 L+28.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under48c142.43$68 inLost-$68.4189850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa11f…1252backed Under34c136.29$46 inLost-$46.3420247.5%96 W · 106 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3322…7dc2backed Under39c128.83$50 inLost-$49.835343.4%23 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf5e…95e3backed Under34c93.56$32 inLost-$31.8121046.2%97 W · 113 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x54a2…1d43backed Over13c79$10 inWon+$68.7318835.1%66 W · 122 L+24.5wins+0.13per pick22cpaid+116.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x4e80…c709backed Over62c70.19$44 inWon+$26.414856.3%27 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e3e…a78abacked Under53c66.18$35 inLost-$34.8814237.3%53 W · 89 L-11.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Over47c44.26$21 inWon+$23.4669848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf09d…d23fbacked Under45c40$18 inLost-$1810651.9%55 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3e7…a322backed Over48c39.13$19 inWon+$20.266157.4%35 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Under61c38.59$24 inLost-$23.5455751.9%289 W · 268 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under46c38$18 inLost-$17.6465630.2%198 W · 458 L-86.7wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-42.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over59c32$19 inWon+$13.1230551.5%157 W · 148 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bcf…c678backed Over40c28.05$11 inWon+$16.8310761.7%66 W · 41 L+8.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under56c26.77$15 inLost-$15.053,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Under50c20$10 inLost-$1037665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.