NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Pistons: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb254cd7e85ea8f3829ddcd6dbdafb172de8b72072e4ebc7a85b059edc5f5ab71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Magic, Pistons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Magic | 36c | 790.56$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.44 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Pistons | 59c | 410.66$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.48 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…9953backed Magic | 30c | 392.8$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.91 | 118 | 64.4%76 W · 42 L | +15.6wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4517…f700backed Pistons | 68c | 324.38$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.05 | 171 | 47.4%81 W · 90 L | +13.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Pistons | 64c | 315.95$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.53 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52a1…7833backed Pistons | 71c | 279.9$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff4…8720backed Magic | 45c | 221.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Magic | 42c | 211.23$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 228 | 44.7%102 W · 126 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…437cbacked Magic | 45c | 185.17$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6734…2e18backed Pistons | 73c | 136.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Pistons | 63c | 129.69$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3048…057fbacked Pistons | 51c | 120$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Pistons | 69c | 119.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 367 | 49.6%182 W · 185 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pistons | 59c | 119.61$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.53 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Pistons | 60c | 110.38$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…672ebacked Pistons | 71c | 105.1$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 137 | 59.9%82 W · 55 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Magic | 33c | 101.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…eef4backed Magic | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -9.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…1f3dbacked Magic | 42c | 99.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Magic | 41c | 96.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Magic | 26c | 92.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…fb0fbacked Magic | 36c | 82.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Pistons | 65c | 79.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Pistons | 65c | 79.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 202 | 47.5%96 W · 106 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…fb83backed Magic | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Pistons | 57c | 55.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 163 | 69.9%114 W · 49 L | +18.6wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d822backed Magic | 37c | 54.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Pistons | 63c | 50.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 210 | 56.7%119 W · 91 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Magic | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…be9dbacked Magic | 27c | 49.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3a…7bdcbacked Magic | 27c | 45.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…b336backed Pistons | 79c | 44.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Pistons | 68c | 42.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1495…d3f9backed Magic | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Magic | 55c | 39.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Pistons | 65c | 37.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb676…2dbbbacked Magic | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Pistons | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…4eedbacked Magic | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Pistons: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Pistons won
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Cade Cunningham: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Jamal Cain: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- Magic vs. PistonsPistons won
- Magic vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 104.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 191.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 195.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 199.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 201.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 202.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 203.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5Over won
- Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 206.5Over won
- Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Paolo Banchero: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Spread: Pistons (-11.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-13.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-15.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-7.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-9.5)Pistons won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Tobias Harris: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.