TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Tobias Harris: Points O/U 17.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,094
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,411

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,094 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbd38…99d4backed Yes53c336.57$180 inWon+$156.5725657%146 W · 110 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed No47c224.92$105 inLost-$105.3476247.1%359 W · 403 L+2.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked No42c162.53$68 inLost-$68.2650346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa60…3f39backed Yes58c146.55$85 inWon+$61.551464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+32.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Yes55c108.81$60 inWon+$48.8134849.7%173 W · 175 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No45c98.83$44 inLost-$44.4790863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7b1f…4a6bbacked No45c98.82$44 inLost-$44.472737%10 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-25%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed No48c31.22$15 inLost-$1531748.9%155 W · 162 L-12.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd071…b4dabacked Yes52c20$10 inWon+$9.69146.2%42 W · 49 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x49d0…bf9dbacked Yes55c20$11 inWon+$94139%16 W · 25 L-6.6wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-30.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.